2024-11-06 07:11

I have the feeling, we will get a lot of discussions this season.

Let's face it, several conference championship games will likely be filled AFTER a tie-breaker-decision regarding the conference standings. And THOSE tie-breaker-decisions will have a big impact on the playoff participants and the at-large-spot fillings.

For example, if you have a 3-team-tie for the 2nd spot, some tie-breaker-rule will bring a team into the 2nd spot, while teams number 3 and 4 will not play in that game.
Now the 2nd team, loses the championship game.
It will drop a bit in the national rankings, for sure.
That might be enough to drop out of the 7 at large spots AND the 3rd and/or the 4th team might even leapfrog the 2nd team, and might get INTO an at-large-spot.

You think that seems unrealistic? I don't think so, because for one, the tiebreaker does usually not include the non-conference games, at least not in the first few rules, which means, the 2nd place team might already be behind the 3rd or even the 4th team in the national rankings, but ahead in the conference. And for two, when the championship game is done and the 2nd team lost, it DOES impact the rankings, always does, and any impact can lead to an edge case, where a team drops out of the desired spots.

Maybe a bad reference, but last season did Florida State drop out of the playoff spots, despite a perfect record, because the championship results and the overall season results did bring the committee to the conclusion, that FSU was weaker than the 3rd and 4th placed teams (3rd placed was at that point perfect PAC-12 Champ Washington, 4th place was at that point 1-loss-SEC-Champ Alabama). And here FSU did not even lose a game.

For the fans RIGHT NOW, the most conferences do look great, open, exciting. But once the dust is settled, end of November, I think some fans of some teams will begin to worry.

Let's go to the conference standings after week 10.

A short note prior the standings, the field does right now narrow down. I will keep the teams in the contender mix at a minimum, but at some point, I have to open up and put names back into the mix.

American Athletic Conference
Army and Tulane stayed undefeated, Navy dropped a bomb and lost a must-win-game.
By that. the 1-loss-group has now only Navy, because Memphis did also lose a must-win-game and is so no longer in the mix.

Atlantic Coast Conference
The ACC got a big hit this weekend and lost 2 of the so far 4 unbeaten teams. Remaining are Miami and SMU.
Clemson lost to a still hoping team, while Pittsburgh lost to contender SMU.
Also here did the so far 1-loss-team, Virginia Tech, lose and dropped out for now.

BIG-12 Conference
BYU did not play and stayed unbeaten, Iowa State lost a thriller against hopeful TTU and drops to 1-loss.
With 1 loss are now Iowa State and Colorado left, Kansas State had a bad game against Houston and dropped out so far.

BIG10 Conference
The BIG10 had the top game this week and Penn State lost that game, so the unbeaten teams are right now Indiana and Oregon.
With 1-loss are now Ohio State and Penn State.

Conference USA
Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State do right now cruise further as unbeaten teams.
Liberty did drop another game, now against contender Jacksonville State, and by that only Sam Houston is 1-loss behind the unbeaten teams.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC has only 1 unbeaten team left, Western Michigan.
The list of 1-loss teams has Miami (OH), Ohio and Bowling Green.
No change at all this week here.

Mountain West Conference
The MWC has a top game this week and Boise State and Colorado State did survive as unbeaten teams.
San Diego State dropped to 1-loss after the game against the Broncos and are now together with UNLV in the 1-loss-group.
Fresno State lost a close game against Hawai'i, which did not help, and they are now dropped out of the mix.

Southeastern Conference
The SEC lost their last unbeaten team and now I have to open up the field again, because now we have several 1-loss teams and also several 2-loss teams, which all have a chance to get to the top by winning.
Let's start with the 1-loss teams, having Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Texas.
Right behind are lurking Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Alabama with 2 losses now.
With 4 games remaining, there is still plenty of room for chaos here and ALL of those teams are right now AP-ranked.

Sun Belt Conference
Georgia Southern and Marshall are leading the East with 1 loss each, thanks to an Old Dominion loss.
Behind them are Old Dominion and James Madison.
Coastal Carolina did lose the 3rd in a row and dropped out so far.
The West is still led by Louisiana as unbeaten team.
With 1 loss behind them is only Arkansas State.
ULM, South Alabama and Texas State lost all their games this weekend and are right now out.

That's it for the conferences.

Bowl eligible teams
12 additional teams got the 6th win this weekend, so now 45 teams have already bowl eligibility.

Week 6: Miami, Indiana
Week 7: Army, Pittsburgh, BYU, Iowa State, Oregon, Penn State and Texas
Week 8: Clemson, Duke, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Illinois, Kansas State, UNLV, Washington State, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana and Notre Dame
Week 9: Tulane, Ohio State, Colorado, Sam Houston, Boise State, Alabama, Ole Miss, James Madison
Week 10: Louisville, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Iowa, Minnesota, Western Kentucky, UConn, Toledo, Colorado State, Vanderbilt, Georgia Southern

78 bowl spots are available.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 10

Fri. Nov 1
San Diego State @ #15 Boise State
The top game of the week for the Mountain West and it was a display of power from the Broncos.
They did lead at the half with 35:10 and led 49:10 before the Aztecs were allowed to score again in garbage time in the 4th quarter.
Right now it looks like the Broncos are a sure bet for the championship game. Which team will challenge them is a different story.
The Aztecs have to hope for some meltdown by some teams, so they might have a chance to get into the driving seat.
San Diego State 24 @ #15 Boise State 56 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 24-7

Sat. Nov 2
#4 Ohio State @ #3 Penn State
I have 2 stories on this, the actual game and the stuff surrounding it.
I start with the stuff surrounding it.
I did mention that you can watch college football games streamed live on youtube last week.
So, I thought on the weekend, let's check, whether this top game is available and when I did search, I did get several games advertising THIS game.
I did click on it and got either a different game (most of the time the Miami game), the actual game with a BIG blocker in the middle saying 'click in the chat for the real stream' (which could be anything, did not click) or you did find some smart asses playing the OSU-PSU-game as videogame and they streamed that! WTF!
So that top game was not on youtube, bad luck.
Now to the game itself.
Penn State did look good exactly 1 quarter, the 1st one.
They won that 10:7, and then the team were just unable to do anything to their favor.
Worst was, when they were close the OSU endzone and did throw an INT before the half.
Man, not in such a game. ....
The 2nd half was not much better and all overreaction beside, the talent level of OSU did just slowly grind down the Lions offense and defense and any chances that came up to get the game back in the Lions favor, were missed.
Penn State lost now the 8 in a row, which is the longest streak on that rivalry ever.
And all those games were with the same PSU HC.
I'm not saying the guy has to go. No, I think he is a good coach, but I think PSU and OSU are a level apart and as long as Penn State can't figure out how to offset that difference, Penn State will have to settle with a bit less.
Ohio State has a big chance to get into the championship game, because they have to play Indiana, soon.
#4 Ohio State 20 @ #3 Penn State 13 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 24-8

#18 Pittsburgh @ #20 SMU
Another top game of a conference and here the ACC was at stake.
SMU had a huge 2nd quarter (24:0) and by that did almost win the game already.
The 1st half lead was 34:3 and then in the 2nd half did SMU play smart the clock and even when Pitt did shrink the margin a bit, SMU did score and score and Pitt was never able to overcome those points from the 2nd quarter.
SMU is right now THE best bet for a championship spot, together with Miami.
If both teams do survive their remaining schedule, which absolutely possible, there will be no discussion which teams were the best.
But if one or both falls, several teams are waiting.
#18 Pittsburgh 25 @ #20 SMU 48 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 25-8

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Nov 2
Texas Tech @ #11 Iowa State
Man, I did look into this game on youtube and I did feel with the HC of the Cyclones, when his team played the stupidest game of the season.
Despite some bad stuff did Iowa State actually win the 1st half, 13:10.
Then more stupid stuff did happen, most notable penalties, which did keep TTUs drive alive, and helped them score.
And the Cyclones offense did not step up, when needed.
It did result in and ugly game, where Iowa State got the lead late with a TD and a failed 2-pointer for 22:17, a Texas Tech TD with 20 ticks left to play (also with a failed 2-pointer) for a TTU 23:22 lead and a desperate last drive by ISU, which did fail, so TTU won.
By that ISU did drop from the unbeaten teams and has again one of those bad losses, the program just doesn’t seem to avoid, since seasons.
Jacks interesting games Score: 20-12

Toledo @ Eastern Michigan
And another of those games, you like to bite a bit out of your desk.
Eastern Michigan did control the game, for 3 quarters, led 19:7 end of the 3rd quarter.
Then suddenly a Toledo TD, an EMU INT and another Toledo TD to switch the lead.
EMU tied the game with a field goal but allowed another Toledo TD later.
Trailing by 7 did Eagles did not get much done 2 minutes left to play, forced luckily a 3-and-out on Toledo within a very short period of time and got the ball back with a minute left.
They went over the field, had a last desperate throw for a Hail Mary, GOT THAT for a TD and tried a 2-pointer, only to fail that and lose 28:29.
Sure, I understand to make such a decision, but man ... that loss did hurt.
Now EMU is very likely eliminated from contention, while Toledo can at least dream of a chance, and they got that crucial 6th win for a bowl ticket.
Jacks interesting games Score: 20-13

UL Monroe @ Marshall
Marshall did need a great 4th quarter to shift the tied game into a close win, 28:23.
Louisiana-Monroe might be on the edge to fall apart, there were and incident at the sideline, which did not look good and they might need to discipline or fire an assistant coach because of that, while Marshall stays right in the top mix for the division.
Jacks interesting games Score: 21-13

Georgia Southern @ South Alabama
Sometimes a single error can tip a game in favor of one team or another.
Here, South Alabama and Georgia Southern had a shootout and no team did really came up on top, when the Jaguars had a crucial INT late in the game and lost the game at the end 30:34.
That one drive might have made the difference, but to be fair, both teams had plenty of chances to score and were forced to punt instead, so it was NOT really that ONE INT.
Georgia Southern back on top of the division, while USA is struggling and is now 2 losses behind the leading team in their division.
Jacks interesting games Score: 21-14

And some more funny result of week 10:

- Florida International did win against New Mexico State, 34:14. It was the battle for the 3rd win of the season and FIU did take it home.
- Sam Houston won against Louisiana Tech, 9:3. That game goes down as the so far lowest scoring game of FBS this season. And by the way, it was NOT all field goals, it was a FG for LT and a TD and a safety for SHSU. I guess you had that in mind, right?
- One of the biggest upsets this week is South Carolinas win against Texas A&M, 44:20. By that the SEC lost their last unbeaten team and the field of contender did open up big time. But with 4+ games still to play, this will hopefully resolve a bit. Still, chances are high, a tiebreaker is needed at the end.
- Louisville did kick Clemson from the ranked of unbeaten teams by winning 33:21. Fans of the Tigers got mad and did throw water bottles on the field.
- Houston won against Kansas State, 24:19. Big setback for KSU.
- Minnesota did prevail against ranked Illinois on the road, 25:17. The Gophers had a rough start into the season but have won now 4 in a row.
- Syracuse needed OT to win against Virginia Tech, 38:31. That did likely eliminate VT from the contenders list.
- UTSA won against Memphis, 44:36. A much needed win for UTSA, a disaster for Memphis, now 2 behind the leading teams inside the AAC.
- Appalachian State did beat Old Dominion, 28:20. That did send Old Dominion from high last week, after their win against Georgia Southern, to low this week, since they are no longer in control of the division.
- Rice won against Navy, 24:10. Navy was an unbeaten team in the AAC, but thanks to a loss to a now 3-6 teams, the Midshipmen have to hope some of the leading teams do stumble also.

And on Tuesday the committee did publish their 1st ranking, which will be crucial for the playoff seating.
Remember, 5 highest ranked conference champs will be automatically in, with the highest 4 having a bye in the 1st round. The 7 highest non-conference champs will fill the remaining seats for the 1st round.
Since the conference champions are right now open, there is a lot of room for changes until the final rankings are set.
So what I will do is, I will take the 25 teams, sort them according their conferences and then we can start speculating.

The BIG10 has in this initial ranking 4 teams, all quite high, with #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #6 Penn State and #8 Indiana.
Beside the fact that 2 of those will likely battle it out for the Championship, Ohio State will play against Indiana late-November, so this ranking will get a twist anyway prior the final setup.

The SEC has a lot of teams in the ranking, starting with #3 Georgia, #5 Texas, #7 Tennessee, #11 Alabama, #14 Texas A&M, #15 LSU, #16 Ole Miss and last #24 Missouri.
Georgia will play Tennessee and Ole Miss, Texas will take on A&M and Alabama will battle LSU coming weekend. Lots of movements are coming.

The ACC has several teams in it, most as expected not in the top12. #4 Miami, #13 SMU, #18 Pittsburgh, #22 Louisville and #23 Clemson.
Pittsburgh has the toughest remaining schedule here, playing Louisville and Clemson.

The BIG-12 has 4 teams right now in the mix, starting with #9 BYU, then #17 Iowa State, #19 Kansas State and #20 Colorado.
Iowa State will have to play Kansas State on the last gameday.

Then the teams with only a chance for an at-large-bid are coming, with #10 Notre Dame highest and then the PAC-12 team #21 Washington State, which conference will not play a championship game this season (since they only have 2 teams right now).

Next and very important is the Mountain West with only ranked team #12 Boise State. I will explain it soon.

And the last team ranked is another conference member, from the American Athletic, #25 Army.

So, what would happen, if this would be the final rankings?
Assuming the highest rank conference team would be the champ, we have BIG10 (Oregon), SEC (Georgia), ACC (Miami) and BIG-12 (BYU) as the 4 conference highest ranked and by that with a bye week.
As 5th conference then would be in the Mountain West champ at #12 Boise State, having a seat in the 1st round.

The last 7 seats would be filled with the highest ranked teams, which would be #2 Ohio State, #5 Texas, #6 Penn State, #7 Tennessee, #8 Indiana, #10 Notre Dame and as last team #11 Alabama.

The bracket would then be sorted according to the ranks with #2 vs #12, #5 vs #11 and so on.

In the next 4 weeks, including the upcoming weekend, this will change heavily or just a bit. With the pointed-out head-to-head games inside the conference, some teams will likely have on that gameday a do-or-die-situation, at least for the championship participation, like LSU and Alabama having it this week.

I will keep you updated.

Now, let's go to the next weekend’s gameday. Crucial games are coming up. Several of those are marked as do-or-die-games, because with so few games left to play, of course every loss against a direct competitor is not only a setback in terms of wins and losses, it does also tip the tie-breaker in favor of this competitor.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 11

Sat. Nov 9
#4 Miami @ Georgia Tech
We start with a classic trap game.
Miami did dominate Duke and won that game last weekend, clearly. They are now 9-0 and on top of the ACC.
They travel to Georgia Tech, who lost now 2 in a row, against Notre Dame at home 3 weeks ago and against Virginia Tech 2 weeks ago on the road. GT is 5-4, 3-3 inside the conference.
But they are rested, at home and not to be taken lightly.
Of course, when you look at the results, there is no way, Georgia Tech is a threat to Miami, right?
Yeah, might be.
Vegas has Miami ahead by 11.0 points.
And I will pick Miami, for sure, because GT did win or lose most games quite closely, but none of those were against really good teams. And against really good teams, the team did lose big.
So, common sense is, Miami will win here.
Just keep in mind, that GT had a week off and plays at home and Miami might take them too lightly.
We saw upsets against the spread of 20.0+ points already, so this is not a done deal.
On paper, all indicators do favor Miami, their defense their offense, everything.
But the Yellow Jackets on a good day against the Hurricanes on a bad one ...
I hope for an entertaining game, but of course I pick ...
Hurricanes win.

#2 Georgia @ #16 Ole Miss
Oh, this sounds lovely.
Georgia is not the dominating team it was the past few seasons.
They are still a very good team, but they did lose to Alabama on the road, had a quite close game against Mississippi State and another one against Florida, last week.
They are 7-1, 5-1 inside the conference, but not THAT dominant.
And they travel to one of the hottest offenses in the country.
Ole Miss is 7-2, 3-2 inside the conference, and did lose to Kentucky (surprisingly at home) and LSU (in OT on the road).
They did last week smoke Arkansas 63:31.
That will not happen against Georgia, because they have one of the best defenses of the country, which still allowed quite a lot of points in each game.
They Bulldogs are favored by just 2.5 points as #2 in the country.
I have a bad feeling about this, and it seems the game will be a tossup.
Georgias offense will likely be THE difference maker.
If they can exploit the Ole Miss defense, the game will be won by Georgia.
But if they play against a bit sloppy, like they did in 4 of the past 5 games, with almost 3 INTs in EVERY game, Ole Miss might just outscore them.
For Ole Miss, this is the last chance to stay in the hunt for the SEC Championship game AND for an at large seat in the playoffs (likely, you never know what happens).
I think a 3-loss-team will not make the cut for any of the postseason games, except any other bowl.
I like what I saw from Ole Miss, I think they know what's at stake, I hope they execute well, and I pick them as the winner.
Rebels win. (and I hope I will not regret that ...)

#11 Alabama @ #14 LSU
This is also an elimination game.
From SEC contention and from the at-large-spots of the playoffs (likely, but to be fair, LSU might still have a chance with a loss, while Alabama is 99% eliminated).
Alabama has 2 losses inside the SEC, LSU just one.
Both had bye weeks.
Alabama is favored on the road by 3.0 points.
I personally have a small issue with that, since LSU did lose so far only once, against then perfect A&M and Alabama lost to Vanderbilt (and Tennessee).
Now in Death Valley, that Crimson Tide team faces a good offense and might have issues on offense and defense.
Such rivalry games are hard to predict, but I think LSU has a small edge here.
I did not see so far any consistent Tide team, and they play on the road against a rested and prepared arch enemy, who has maybe not the best defense, but a capable offense.
So ...
Tigers win.


And some other interesting games:

Michigan @ #8 Indiana
I think the whole nation (consists out of people caring about the BIG10) is waiting for Indiana to fall from the perfect place.
We are talking about Indiana, a program known for Basketball, not Football. A team which has a .421 lifetime win margin.
A team, which had last time a winning season in 2020 (6-2, with a bowl loss), last time a convincing winning season in 2019 (8-5, including a bowl loss), and last time a 9+ win season in ... 1967 (9-2, including a bowl loss) and a winning record HC in the 1930s.
The new HC of Indiana, brand new, first season here, is 9-0 now and nobody can believe it.
They face Michigan, the defending National Champion, at home, and are a 14.0-point favorite.
Man, THAT'S a story.
I make it quick from here onwards.
Michigan struggles on several areas, but if everything comes together perfectly, they have a good chance to win here.
Do I believe they will come together like that? No, because they did not so far the whole season.
The potential is there to upset Indiana at home, I just doubt it will happen.
Hoosiers win.

#18 Army @ North Texas
Not that harsh, but still from my point of valid is, that Army is also a surprise this season. 8-0 so far.
They did not play any big contender so far, so tough to say, HOW good the team is.
Record points of view (if we ignore the FCS game, which team is 5-3) North Texas is the best team Army has to face so far with 5-3, 2-2 inside the conference.
It's a road game for Army, so that will matter.
Vegas has Army ahead by 5.5 points.
Not that much, but quite something.
UNT lost 2 in a row, against Tulane and Memphis, both by 8 points.
Both teams quite contenders, even Memphis did slip a bit.
UNT had a bye week.
So, hopefully well prepared, almost on the level of the contenders, facing Army, who had so far as toughest opponent 4-4 ECU.
I pick UNT as an upset over Army. It will be mean and green ...
Mean Green win.

#19 Clemson @ Virginia Tech
I picked this game as trap game for Clemson, but they did already shoot themselves in the foot last gameday.
Still, this game has potential, it might shift Clemson to likely non-contenders in a loss, or it will eliminate VT for sure from any hope of contention.
Clemson is favored by 6.5 points.
Valid approach.
VT comes off an OT loss against Syracuse, Clemson off a loss against Louisville.
VT at home is not a bad team, Clemson on the road so far perfect, but those were games against Wake Forest and FSU, both not really good teams this season.
I prefer a close game with VT getting it done, but this can go anyway.
Hokies win.

That's for week 11, I hope you enjoy the games.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

Tags: Block of Granite, News