2025-09-12 08:45

Hi there,

this season the planning and executing on my blog did become tough to impossible for the start of the season, thanks to a new project at work and a shift in my vacation routine.

The project did give me less time to do the preparations, mainly the previews on the conferences, and the shift in my vacation routine did provide me NOW with a nice trip to Iceland, but did provide me THEN with even less time to do the previews, so I did decide to skip them overall.

I had started with Conference USA and Sun Belt and had the feeling of ‘who needs this?’ in general with the previews, because, we have now 130+ teams in the FBS and because of the payment issues and the changes in transfer protocol (basically the introduction of free agency in college football with much less restrictions as in the NFL) the preview part of each conference was reduced to a guessing game.

I did read some previews from commercial providers and in many of those the text was similar to my feeling, phrased as ‘wide-open’ or ‘many contenders’. When I did read roster changes of some teams, it did look like, some teams did change their whole starting lineup, on purpose. Some because their players did walk off to different teams with bigger paychecks, some because they did see the lack of quality and wanted an instant improvement, at least on paper. On top came changes in coaching setups, which did also result in massive roster changes, because either the old coach did take half of the team with him, or the new coach did not like what he had and went straight to the portal on day 1 of his new job.

The bottom line was, I did not see the need and sense to work myself through those 130+ teams, just to say, they might be contenders. With the limited time to do such, if I would have wanted to do so, it became impossible and senseless.

So, I decided to start after my vacation and to limit it to the preview of the games. How many games I will preview is open, likely again roughly 6 per week.

I give you a short roundup of the first few gamedays, week zero to week 2.

Week Zero

Week Zero is traditionally an opportunity for some teams to either stretch the packed 12-game-schedule by a week and adding by that another bye week somewhere in the regular season that way, or to add a game 13 to the schedule to add revenue, experience and eventually bend the odds for a bowl ticket towards your team.

Last season it were 4 games in week zero, this season it were 5 games.
The top game was Iowa State visiting Kansas State, with both teams ranked in the preseason toll. At the end did Iowa State beat Kansas State 24:21, which might become a deciding game for the final standing inside the BIG12.

The rest were basically the usual cupcake games ending as expected, except one game. Hawai’i does traditionally play every season a week zero game and this season they did get Stanford coming to the island. With the home team being bad since several seasons, Stanford as ACC team was the opening favorite, but became later the 1.5-point underdog under interims HC Frank Reich. Well, at the end did Hawai’i win the game 23:20 and did already spoil the season for the Cardinals before it did really start.
Not sure, whether Frank Reich wants to get the gig regularly, but so far his results are poor (spoiler).

Week 1

The week 1 was the regular season start and as usual many of the 130+ teams did schedule a FCS team to boost their record or to have an easy start. Of course there were also regular FBS vs FBS games, including some heavy stuff, which did turn heads already.

The hottest game on day 1 was the matchup between preseason ranked teams #1 Texas @ #3 Ohio State, which ended with a Buckeyes win 14:7. The Texas offense was more or less shut down by the OSU defense. I think the game will not hurt Texas much (beside the loss itself), especially if Ohio State will play a great season, what is expected.

The next big fight was #9 LSU @ #4 Clemson. Both teams were in the talk for a playoff spot and obviously Clemson to be a primary contender. The game ended with LSU winning 17:10 and with Clemson to be unable to do anything on offense in the 2nd half. Will be interesting to see, whether this game will be a blueprint to keep them under control.

Biggest surprise of the week was likely the result of #8 Alabama @ FSU. FSU had a BAD season last year, shit deluxe, 2-10, the worst since 1974! Their HC, Mike Norvell, now in his 6th season, did change a lot to rebuild the team, which went 13-1 in 2023. Alabama had 2024 also a quite rough season compared to the seasons before, since they had to replace one of the best coaches in FBS history, overall, not only in Alabama. Kalen DeBoer came in and finished 9-4, but with those 4 losses being crucial. Vanderbilt at Alabama, against rival Tennessee, against Oklahoma late in the season and then on top in a Bowl against way worse (according to record) Michigan. So, when FSU did upset the 13.5-point favored Crimson Tide, it was a stunner. We will see whether this was the first nail in the coffin for DeBoer, or just a little uupsy on the way back into the playoffs.

Next top game was #6 Notre Dame @ #10 Miami, which did end with a Hurricanes win 27:24. Miami kicked a FG to win with a minute left to play and the Irish were just unable to play fast and effective office in the time remaining. But for me it did look like they were too error prone for that opponent. If they want to make the playoffs again, they need to fix that and they have to hope Miami finishes big time in the ranks, because then this game will be not that harsh as malus.

Other (at least for me) surprising results were:
- South Florida did beat preseason ranked Boise State 34:7. Some did already see a problem with the playoffs. Well, maybe a bit early.
- Tarleton State (FCS) bested Army 30:27 in 2 OT. Army was a 14.5-point favorite prior the game.
- Georgia Tech won against Colorado 27:20 on the road and the Buffalos might have to adjust to a live without their star QB.
- Central Michigan did beat San Jose State 16:14. The Spartans were also a 14.5-point favorite and did not deliver.
- Tulane did best Northwestern, 23:3. It seems Northwestern has a lot to fix, and it seems Tulanes HC might be one of the hottest candidates for a better paid job at the end of the season.
- Austin Peay (FCS) won against Middle Tennessee, 34:14. That was Austin Peays first won over an FBS team since 1987!
- Rice did win against Louisiana, 14:12. Even Rice is an AAC team, it has a new HC and was bad last year, still won against one of the best teams from the Sun Belt of last season, which did even win against Wake Forest (ACC).
- Cal won against Oregon State, 34:15. Oregon State seems to be in a downward spiral with their HC now in his 2nd season.
- And Utah did set a mark by winning against UCLA 43:10. Utah was not that good last season and everyone was asking themselves, whether the longterm HC would retire afterwards. But he is back and did stomp former conference rival UCLA bigtime.
- And as bonus, the long awaited debut of Bill I-won-everything-at-New-England-Belichick at UNC did fall flat, when TCU did torture then for a 48:14 win in week 1.

Week 2

Week 2 is usually the same quality as week 1, just a permutation of the scheduling. So lot’s of bullshit games against FCS teams, lots of cupcake games between power 4 and non-power 4 (which do look ridiculous when the power 4 team loses) and some serious games.

Biggest headscratcher was likely the game between Oklahoma State and #6 Oregon. OSU was only a 28.5-point underdog (only, haha) but lost 69:3! That’s their worst game against a FBS team since a century! Not sure their HC will survive this. It seems he is not fit to play in this new era of college football. But to be fair, he has often righten the ship after a bad start, so maybe he can do it again.

#15 Michigan did visit #18 Oklahoma and man, this game did prove, Michigan is far away from being a contender again. Oklahoma did win 24:13 and Michigan was never in charge and did play catch up all game long. I think it was a work win by Oklahoma in a forgettable game.

When Iowa plays Iowa State for the Cy-Hawk-Trophy, the stakes are high in the state of Iowa (and nowhere else). Iowa State did win 16:13 at home, which was the 1st win at home for them since 2011, all though they won the trophy 3 times in the past 4 seasons!

Other (at least for me) surprising results were:
- Clemson was down starting of the 3rd quarter and did barely won their game against Troy 27:16. Not sure, whether Clemson is inconsistent or Temple had some lucky punches in the 1st half.
- Arizona State, ranked at that time at 12, did lose to unranked Mississippi State, 24:20. Everyone was wondering, how the playoff team of last year did suck so badly to allow a last game winning drive by the Bulldogs to score within a minute after the Sun Devils scored the supposed to be game winning field goal.
- But that was nothing regarding stunning, when South Florida did win against #13 Florida 18:16. The Bulls did win with a FG with time running out and left the Gator community angry. I guess the pitchforks are already dusted up and ready to go to finally get rid of that damn HC who did suck so badly (like so many before, instead of winning a championship right away as Gator HC did regularly in the dream world of Gator fans in the past).
- Fresno State did win against Oregon State, 36:27. That means Oregon State is already in deep shit after 2 winnable games. Looks good for the HC I guess.
- Ohio did beat West Virginia, 17:10. Rich Rodriguez comeback to the Mountaineers seems to be a rocky one. (pun intended)
- Bryant (FCS) did get the win against UMass, 27:26. If you lose against a FCS team, it does always suck. If that is eventually your only possible win for a season, it must sting.
- And Eastern Michigan did lose against Long Island University, 28:23. I have high regards on the HC of the Eagles, but that loss is stunning for me.
- UNLV won against UCLA, 30:23. That sets the mark already for UCLA sucking twice in a row. Is that HCs chair already warm?

Which brings us to the first regular preview of games for the upcoming weekend.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 3

Sat. Sep 13
#6 Georgia @ #15 Tennessee
We have here Georgia, now in the 10th season under HC Kirby Smart, who had so far great success with the team, including back-to-back National Titles in 2021 and 2022 and also last season the SEC Championship.
On the other hand we have Tennessee with their HC Josh Heupel in his 5th season for the Vols, guiding the team from mediocracy to SEC contender in that period.
Both teams were in the 12-team-playoffs last year, Georgia was knocked out against Notre Dame in the quarterfinals (as SEC champs they had a 1st round bye) and Tennessee were beaten in the 1st round by later National Champion Ohio State.
So far did the teams win their games, but those were all far from the level a contending SEC team should fear (of course a contending SEC team does fear nothing, except an unexpected money drain, but you know what I mean).
Georgia is favored right now by 3.5 points, which gives away a bit the feeling most people have about the teams.
Yes, they are both contenders, but Georgia just has that little inch more of contenderness (which is no real word, I think).
Let’s face it, Georgia WON stuff in the past few seasons, while Tennessee just TRIED to win stuff.
But of course, this season could be the season of a change in command inside the SEC and Tennessee might trip Georgia in that home game.
I’m not convinced, but I expect a close game.
Bulldogs win.

#18 South Florida @ #5 Miami
This is just a fun pick, because I absolutely don’t think, that South Florida will win this.
But because they did win against Florida last week, a SEC team, a team, which dreams of being a contender and sucks to hire the right guy to deliver since a long time, ... well, because of that the Bulls got ranked and we have a ranked vs ranked game inside the state of Florida you don’t see very often.
Miami is favored right now by 17.5 points, which seems quite OK, given the fact that they did beat Notre Dame and play at home against an AAC team.
To be clear, South Florida can be very proud about their 2 wins so far, against then ranked Boise State (last season playoff participant as MWC Champ) and then ranked Florida (SEC team, with a great 4 game winning finish at the end of the season, including wins against LSU and Ole Miss).
That team MIGHT win here, but that would be a major upset and those do not happen THAT often.
All odds are against the Bulls, so I go ...
Hurricanes win.

#16 Texas A&M @ #8 Notre Dame
A very interesting matchup.
Texas A&M did hire Mike Elko away from Duke last year and he delivered an 8-5 result in his 1st season with the team, including a bowl loss.
That’s likely not the result the A&M people did hope for, but better than the last result his predecessor had.
Expectations are that Elko build a contender and this 2nd season should point into the right direction. So far the team has won both games, but all against non-power 4 conference teams, so this upcoming game will be the 1st real test.
And Notre Dame is a team, which tries to retain their status as independent team, but in this new era of college football, that means you need to get to the playoffs to keep the big paychecks alive.
Last season did the team get to the playoffs and made it to the National Championship game, only to lose there against Ohio State.
Still a great success for their quite young HC Marcus Freeman, who is now in his 4th season with the team in that position.
So, for Notre Dame the path is clear, win as many games as possible, best case ALL, and get to the playoffs.
But unfortune for them, they did lose against Miami already.
That did hurt them so far not THAT much in the rankings, because Miami is so far highly ranked.
But another loss might doom them to drop into the mid ranks, from which they might never recover.
The Irish are favored by 6.5 points right now, at home.
I personally have problems with both teams, but that meltdown against Miami did bring me into the A&M corner.
Why?
Because Elko is a good coach and I expect his team to be stronger than last year and with the Irish having defense issues, this might be the chance to upset the Irish at home.
Last year did A&M lose at home, but that was the season opener under the new HC, now it’s week 3 with the 2nd year coach.
Sure, a risk, but I like it.
Aggies win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Sep 13
#12 Clemson @ Georgia Tech
Clemson wants to get back into the top ranks, wants to win the ACC and of course into the playoffs. Dabo Swinney (17th season now) had some ‘down’ seasons with the team since their last good ones. Between 2015 and 2020 was Clemson a national force, but were set back to local force afterwards, mostly because their QBs did not be THAT dominant as before.
But last year did the team win the ACC and went to the playoffs, only to lose in the 1st round against Texas.
The goal is clear, but they already stumbled a bit, losing to LSU in the opener by 7 points, mainly because their offense was bad in the whole 2nd half. That offense did also sleep in the 1st half against Troy but came alive in the 2nd and the team won.
Now they play Georgia Tech, on the road. Their HC Brent Key (now 4th season) did made GT at least respected inside the ACC again, and the team did win some games they were supposed to lose. So far, the team won all games, most surprising against Colorado.
Clemson is favored by 2.5 points, and I did shift my pick right before my writing here from Clemson to GT, because I liked GTs defense so far and in the past and they play at home.
On paper is Clemson stronger, but that doesn’t mean they will win.
Yellow Jackets win.

Arkansas @ #17 Ole Miss
This is quite clear on paper.
Ole Miss did play great under Lane Kiffin and in his 6th season, there is no reason to believe they will slow down.
Arkansas on the other hand had some rough seasons, but Sam Pittman turned the table again last year and now in his 6th season, all signs do point towards a better record than last years 7-6.
Unfortune the heavy hitters, like Ole Miss, have to be beaten to get that better record and here, Ole Miss is favored at home by 6.5 points.
Don’t underestimate the Razorbacks, they might have a few new tricks, but I stand with the favorite here.
Rebels win.

Florida @ #3 LSU
Another clear one here.
Florida did suck last week and their HC Billy Napier, now in his 4th season, is heavily on a hot seat. Last year did the team finish strong with 4 wins in a row, including a bowl win, which did likely saved his ass, but with that loss against South Florida, the pressure is right back.
Sure, if the team does turn around and the Bulls games just becomes some sort of BooBoo the team did, all is fine. But I guess nobody is right now expecting that and with a schedule like the Gator have, it looks like it will be rough season and it’s possible the team will fire the HC prior season final.
LSU on the other hand does right now look great. Brian Kelly in his 4th season did so far not deliver the championship, but kept the team on a high level so far. The aim this season is clearly to get into the playoffs and the win against Clemson did cash them in a great bonus already.
LSU is favored by 7.5 points, given the so far existing results, I would go even higher in favor of LSU.
Florida needs to get their offense going and that against a team, which did shut down the supposed to be great Clemson offense for a complete half is likely too much to ask for.
Tigers win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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