2025-10-16 07:52

Man, this season the craziness is hitting some new records.

Another 3 coaches got the axe after this weekend and at least one is a bit surprising. But it shows that in this new era of NIL and instant success the period of mediocrity after some success is very short and regardless the price, a change has to be announced to secure the support of the fans and the boosters.

Here are the 3 critical games, which led to 3 pink slips.

The 1st is not really spectacular, with Florida Atlantic (FAU) beating University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB) 53:33. FAU was favored by 5.5 points, was 2-3 prior the game and was looking for an uplift inside the conference. UAB was 2-3 also prior the game and hand not won a conference game so far this season. A big 1st quarter (21:0) did help FAU to have the lead and to keep the lead throughout the game, even when UAB did start scoring. Because FAU did match basically every point UAB did put on the board, thanks to the UAB defense, which was just unable to stop the attacks. Well, obviously not a good start at 2-4 after the game and the program decided to step away from their HC, Trent Dilfer in his 3rd season. If that name does ring a bell, yes that’s the former NFL QB winning a Superbowl with the Ravens. He came 2023 after coaching some high school in Tennessee with great success from 2019 to 2022. At UAB, his success was limited, went from 4-8, to 3-9 to now 2-4. This firing was not that surprising, only the timing was a bit early.

The 2nd one is also not that surprising, I did hint it a bit over the past few blog entries. Wake Forest was favored by 1.5 points when they visited Oregon State and the game went down disastrous for the Beavers, with Wake Forest winning 39:14 and the Beavers did only score in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Prior the game was Wake Forest 3-2 and Oregon State was 0-6. Then after the game, at 0-7 and a humiliating defeat later, the Beavers administration decided to cut off their current HC, Trent Bray in his 2nd season. He came in as hire from within as former DC of the Beavers, when the very successful last HC was hired by Michigan State. Well, the Beavers did drop heavily in production after the change and finished 5-7 and they are now 0-7, with no positive progression in sight. A tough cut, given the time period given the HC to adjust, but shows do fit with my earlier experiences that programs get mad, if their beloved great results of the past are not matched by the successor. It usually takes 2 to 5 HC until an administration adjusts eventually to the return to times prior the great successful period, when their HC was so good, it was instantly hired by a better paying program.

The 3rd firing is that one firing, which did shock me the most. It’s understandable and maybe I would have done the same, in the same situation, but I’m not really sure. The game was Northwestern visiting Penn State. Northwestern was 3-2 at that moment, Penn State was 3-2 also.
The difference was, Northwestern had won only to quite bad playing programs so far and lost clearly to Oregon and Tulane. Penn State was top of the class 2 weeks ago, lost then to Ohio State at home by an inch, and lost then to UCLA on the road. Bad, but could be just a booboo.
Penn State was favored at home against Northwestern by 20.5 points.
So, everyone was surprised, when the team did lose to the Wildcats, 21:22.
Now they lost 3 in a row. Not nice at all. Concerning? Yes.
But we are talking about a change in the HC rank for a coach who was with the team since 2014. James Franklin has won the conference with Penn State (2016), he did win double digit in the past 3 seasons and the team did go to the BIG10 Championship game last year (lost) and went to the playoffs (semis). I would say, that this guy knows how to coach. Yes, 3 losses are not great and that’s a good start for a serious talk and a meeting, but instead the program did fire the guy with a paycheck of roughly 49 million dollars, the 2nd highest buyout of all time.
I have to say, one thing on Franklin always was concerning, his record against top rated teams. The teams over the years did never perform very well against top teams, like the stunning record of 4-21 against TOP10 teams. That is concerning and does not help, when you want to win a National Championship game. Still, Penn State needs to find a better man now, which reminds me of Nebraska, who did fire Bo Pelini in 2014 after a record of 67-27, because he did lose constantly in the BIG10 Championship game and did not lift the team to a National Championship. Since then did Nebraska look for the better guy and found Mike Riley (3 seasons, 19-19), Scott Frost (4 seasons and a bit, 16-31) and Matt Rhule (Now in his 3rd season, at 17-14, but this season on a 5-1 start). So you see, it’s might not be easy to find THAT better man.

Bu hey, that’s the new era of college football. If you don’t win, you do not serve the program well and you are always expendable, regardless the costs. It will be interesting to see, who they will hire to succeed James Franklin and it will be interesting to see, where Franklin will land, because for sure he will get another shot.

Another crazy game? Sure.

Colorado State did beat Fresno State, 49:21. The Bulldogs were favored by 5.5 points, but lost against CSU, which did until then only win against an FCS team.
USC did host ranked Michigan and won, 31:13. The 1st loss for Michigan inside the BIG10, which gives then an instant disadvantage in the standings.
Colorado did finally got their 1st win inside the BIG 12, and surprisingly that was against ranked Iowa State, 24:17. Iowa State did look like a real contender 2 weeks ago, but did lose now 2 in a row, which makes it almost impossible for them to get into the Championship game.
After FSU did battle Miami last week to a loss by roughly a score they got ranked at #25. Then they did host Pitt at home to lose 31:34. They lost now 3 in a row.
UCLA did win against Michigan State, 38:13. That firing of the coach seems to work wonders in L.A.
In the battle of the Kellerkinder (german for 2 teams at the buttom of the standing, word exact translation would be basement kids) did Eastern Michigan beat Northern Illinois 16:10.
Kansas State did win against TCU, 41:28 and tries to get back into the top ranks of the BIG 12 (which is still a long way).
Marshall did beat Old Dominion, 48:24. Right now the Sun Belt divisions are wide open, we will see, whether step by step all unbeaten teams do get a loss here and there.
Iowa did find their offense and defense to beat Wisconsin, 37:0. Man Wisconsin does really looks not that sharp this season at 2-4 and losing 4 in a row now. Heartland trophy stays in Iowa and we might see a coaching change soon in Wisconsin?

Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 7

Sat. Oct 11
#1 Ohio State @ #17 Illinois
You can’t win games, if you turn over the ball too often, especially not, if you are the underdog.
Illinois did that 3 times and Ohio State got 21 points out of that.
Try to make up on that against a better team (at least on paper). It’s almost impossible and for Illinois it did prove to BE impossible.
The team did lose more or less in the 1st half and any try to get back into the driver seat in the 2nd half was countered by Ohio State to grind the game out with a 2+ score margin.
For Ohio State, this was important, since it did lift the team into the top seats of the conference and with their schedule left, chances are good they stay there. But of course they can do a booboo and fall from grace also, so nothing is decided.
For Illinois this was for sure another setback and the team will likely end up in the middle of the conference. But given the past years and decades, that would be a good season, if they can go to a bowl. And it will likely be a good one.
#1 Ohio State 34 @ #17 Illinois 16 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 10-3

#8 Alabama @ #14 Missouri
I had picked the Tigers and the Tigers were close to win this, but unfortune they did not.
In the 1st half it was quite clear that Alabama had the edge, but only a little bit. They went into the locker rooms with Bama leading 17:10.
Then came Alabama out of the looker room and fumble their 1st drive away, which gave Missouri the chance to tie the game at 17.
Long time nothing did follow and only Alabama was at the end of the 3rd able to score a field goal.
Missouri did answer with an INT, which led to a missed field goal by Alabama.
Yes, I know. Not pretty.
One Tigers drive later did Alabama then score a TD, which Missouri was able to counter, so still 3 points margin.
The Tigers did stop Alabama and got the ball, went from their red zone to mid field and then threw an INT to seal the loss.
For Alabama an important win inside the conference, Missouri on the other hand got a setback, but I think they will recover, and we might see them even in the playoffs.
#8 Alabama 27 @ #14 Missouri 24 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 10-4

#7 Indiana @ #3 Oregon
One of the highlights of the gameday, if not THE highlight and the game was for offense fans a blast.
Many, including me, did favor Oregon, but Indiana did give them something to chew on.
They did score first with a field goal and when Oregon did score a TD, they did answer with a TD also.
The 1st quarter was over, and Oregon was behind.
Oregon did then tie the game at 10, missed later a field goal and allowed Indiana to score a field goal at the half to take the lead into the break, 13:10 Hoosiers.
Late in the 3rd did then Oregon tie the game and Indiana did score a TD. BAM!
The 3rd quarter was over and Indiana was still in the lead.
So Oregon has to turn this in the 4th.
They did intercept Indiana and ran it to the house to tie the game at 20!
Wooohoooo! But those damn farmers from the Indiana did score a TD right afterwards!
And then did Oregon stumble by throwing a pick by themselves and Indiana got another 3 out of it and suddenly it was a 2-score game.
And Oregon did throw the game away on the next drive on the 1st play with another INT.
At the end was Oregon defeated by the Indiana defense.
For Oregon a major blow, but they have the right schedule to likely recover, at least to get into the playoffs.
Indiana has to stay sharp, if they want to go where no team from that campus went since 1967, to the BIG 10 Championship game and win it.
#7 Indiana 30 @ #3 Oregon 20 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 10-5

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 11
#6 Oklahoma @ Texas
Honestly, if I would have been in the stadium here (neutral site in Texas), and I would have been a Texas fan, I would have been worried on my team after the 1st half.
They lost to Florida a week before and were supposed to be a top contender with that Manning kid as QB and the team had issues with Oklahoma the whole 1st half. At the break the teams did split with the Sooners leading 6:3.
But fortunately, someone found the offense playbook in the locker room and the defense did step up a bit, so OU was zeroed out in the 2nd half and Texas did put up 20 points to win the Red River Rivalry 23:6.
I guess the pressure on the Longhorns is now a bit less regarding ‘will they suck’ and they can concentrate on the next games a bit more optimistic?
We will see, they have 3 ranked teams in November right now in the schedule.
Oklahoma did get a big hit by that loss and their remaining schedule is a nightmare starting end of October. I doubt they will be a contender this year.
Jacks interesting games Score: 9-4

#18 BYU @ Arizona
BYU is likely not the best team inside the BIG 12, but they still are undefeated, after they did battle Arizona and came up victorious.
The team had a hangover in 2nd quarter and was trailing by 3 at the break.
Then came a no-scoring quarter and in the 4th did then, after Arizona did go ahead by 10, BYU pull their stuff together and punched the game into OT.
There did both teams settle for a field goal in the 1st OT and in the 2nd did BYU score a TD and Arizona not, so BYU won 33:27 in 2 OT.
BYU has all the undefeated teams on their schedule, so the seating of the Championship game will likely come down to some sort of tiebreaker. Open is, whether BYU will stay undefeated in that process, or not.
I think Arizona, with 2 BIG 12 losses is for now no longer a contender, just a team, which might make live uncomfortable for all the contenders and wanna bees.
Jacks interesting games Score: 10-4

#21 Arizona State @ Utah
Man, Utah must have been frustrated and did let it all out on ASU.
The Utes did win this one-sided game, 42:10.
With that win Utah is one loss behind the top contenders.
I still don’t know whether they will be really contenders or just happy to be now near the sunlight.
Time will tell.
The Sun Devils did fall from the unbeaten team ranks and with that performance, won’t be contenders.
Jacks interesting games Score: 15-4

That’s it for gameday 7.
The conferences start to take some sort of shape, but right now, the lost of could-be and should-be is way to long to bother with it, from my point of view.

So, let’s have a look on the games of the upcoming weekend.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 8

Sat. Oct 18
#10 LSU @ #17 Vanderbilt
I’m not sure, this did happen in the past whatever years.
LSU against Vanderbilt is a ranked vs ranked game and on top is Vanderbilt the favorite!
According to an CBS article is Vanderbilt the 1st time favored against LSU since 1948! And they are favored against a ranked opponent since 1978, with 176 games since then as underdog.
That’s still not the answer to my question, but at least you see, how unusual this is.
Right now, Vandy is a 2.5-point favorite to beat LSU.
The Tigers are 5-1 and lost only to Ole Miss, 2 weeks ago. Last week did the team beat South Carolina.
Vanderbilt is also 5-1 and was only beaten by Alabama last week.
They have also beaten South Carolina, with a bigger margin on the road than LSU did beat them at home.
But such compares are a bit misleading, since games do develop themselves by the special circumstance on gameday.
Still, impressive record by Vanderbilt this season.
Personally, I don’t think either team will have a say at the end of the season on the SEC Championship and on a playoff spot.
Granted, the winner here will have a better shot on either of those season goals, while the loser will drop in the ranks and standings.
It’s do or die for both teams.
By head wants to pick LSU, because it’s LSU and the other team is ‘only Vandy’, but we have to be fair and acknowledge that the Commodores did so far do a good job to play with the top teams and LSU did show flaws, so it will come down to LSUs offense vs Vandy defense.
I lean on my gut feeling and pick ...
Commodores win (oh no!)

#12 Georgia Tech @ Duke
Not a ranked vs ranked game, but a very important game inside the ACC and if you would have told me that just a season ago, I would have smiled and called you nuts.
Why?
Because we have Georgia Tech on one side, a program, which was for the past 10 seasons not in good shape. Especially since 2019, under a new HC, who lasted 3+ seasons, the program made a nosedive to become ridiculous. The team won 3 games in all of the full seasons the coach had and after a start of 1-3 the axe came out and chop, chop.
The interims coach did Brent Key did great, finished 4-4, so the season was 5-7, and won the main gig.
On the next seasons the team finished 7-6 each, including bowl games.
This season the team is 6-0 and on top of the ACC, ranked and doesn’t look like it will sink fast.
On the other side we have Duke, and if you know a bit over college football, Duke is not the team you mention in a sentence containing ‘contender’ or ‘winning team’.
Surprisingly to me is the all-time record of Duke is 0.495, so almost a winning team. The reason for that is likely, that in the past 12 seasons, the team is actually at 0.539 with sometimes very good results at 9 to 10 wins a season, including bowl games, which the team did not have since the mid-90s.
The last 3 HCs including the current one Manny Diaz in his 2nd season, were all hits for Duke and did lift the team from laughingstock to an image were you at least have to take them seriously. Still, Duke was not a real contender inside the ACC or even nationally. The closest they came to a championship was 2013, where they went to the Championship game and got hammered by Florida State.
But this season they are 4-2 (yes, doesn’t sound so great compared to 6-0) and 3-0 inside the ACC.
And they are here favored at home by 1.5 points against a perfect GT team!
By the way, if someone would have said, that Vandy and Duke would be favored on the same gameday ... nuts ...
Anyway, I do lean towards GT, who did take down Clemson and VT so far. Granted, they had trouble with Wake Forest, but won in OT, while Duke did so far win against NC State, Syracuse and Cal. Of those most impressive is likely the Cal win, with Cal seemingly fielding a good team this season.
I expect a close game, and the winner can actually hope for the Championship game, while the loser is likely out, even the team is at that moment only 1 win behind.
Yellow Jackets win.

#5 Ole Miss @ #9 Georgia
One of the top games inside the SEC, for both teams the season is seemingly on the line.
For Ole Miss the past 5 seasons under Lane Kiffin were a bittersweet experience. The team did become a force inside the SEC and national wide but did lack the punch to actually do something great.
Never went to the SEC Championship game (which meant ticket to the National Championship game, if you win that on top) and even last season with the expanded playoffs they came up short. By an inch or so.
This season it looks like there is room to get to the top or at least that far that you get into the playoffs, and you can eventually pull an Ohio-State-2024 and win the damn thing.
But for that they need a great record and one loss to any team, could mean to drop that critical inch downwards.
They are 6-0 so far, so a loss against a good team like Georgia is not the end of the day, but would prove once again, that Ole Miss lacks that punch.
Georgia on the other hand is 5-1 and Kirby Smarts team did already lose to rival Alabama, so another loss here would for sure push the team out of the top spots, which would be far from the expected results.
I don’t get the betting line of -7.5 points for Georgia, since both teams are good, if not great, this season and Ole Miss did also play already some tough nuts and won, so why are they supposed to lose by a score at Georgia?
The Bulldogs defense did struggle against several teams already and here comes one of the best offenses of the conference, if not the nation.
Key matchup will be the Georgia offense against the Ole Miss defense, because I’m sure the Rebels offense will score and the question will be, whether Georgia will be able to respond as often.
In the past games, they did respond as demanded, never more, only once less. But can they respond, if the demand is 30+ points?
I’m leaning towards the Rebels here, with Georgia looking suspicious. But I expect a very close game and an intense one.
Rebels win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Oct 18
UNLV @ Boise State
When all games are played, this game could be the preview of the Mountain West Championship game.
The conference is quite open, and both teams have quite favorable schedules, with Boise State also playing San Diego State soon to have that settled.
But one team will lose this weekend here, in the battle between the unbeaten.
UNLV has Dan Mullen as new HC and the team does play great. So great that Mullen is already in the rumors for some of the openings in power 4 conferences.
Would be a loss for the so far 6-0 Rebels.
And Boise State is 4-2, but had a tough start of the season. Spencer Danielson is in his 2nd season and the team lost the season opener to surprisingly strong South Florida (who did beat Florida a few days later) and to Notre Dame end of September. But all other was great.
And they play on the smurf turf at home.
Might be the reason for a betting line of -12.5 for Boise State.
I think they will have more than a handful to handle here against UNLV.
Who will win?
I don’t know.
UNLV did not play any great team, but handle the games in good ways and that upset of UCLA was at that time stunning, even it did turn out, UCLA was bad at that time.
I would love to see UNLV winning here, but I can not ignore the toughness of the Broncos and the home factor will be likely big.
Broncos win.

#11 Tennessee @ #6 Alabama
Why is this not a top game?
I don’t know, I wanted to get the focus on Vandy, Duke and GT, so that game had to move, I guess.
This rivalry game is called ‘Third Saturday in October’ and the winner donates cigars to their players and do invoke a NCAA violation which they do report immediately.
Nothing big happens because of that, since it is tradition and it’s only cigars.
The game itself is played annually since ages and Tennessee won last season.
Alabama is favored by 7.5 points at home this year.
If Bama wins, they are on course to the SEC Championship game, if Tennessee wins, they stay in the hunt.
Bama is perfect inside the SEC, Tennessee is 1 behind.
Means for the Vols, if they lose, the season goal is playoffs, since the Championship game is likely out of reach.
If Bama loses, things get a bit more complicated iside the SEC with more teams being 1 behind.
Bama did show a lot of character this season, so I expect them to handle this close game.
Crimson Tide win.

#20 USC @ #13 Notre Dame
Last one, and another rivalry game I had to move to this section.
And I think it is overrated this season.
Is USC really a TOP20 teams? I don’t think so.
Is Notre Dame really a TOP15 team? I don’t think so.
They meet in South Bend, they play annually this game, most of the time, and the Irish won the last 2 games.
They are favored by 9.5 points.
IF USC wants to be a bold team, beat Notre Dame on their home turf big time.
But I think they will not.
Fighting Irish win.

Man, I write way too much here.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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