2025-11-26 08:41

Just one week left to sort out the conferences then setup the championship games. This week did not help much, since many teams did play weaker teams or just did what they did the whole season.

One victim of this weekend is already known, Cal did decide after a loss against rival Stanford, 10:31, where they were favored by 4.5 points on the road, that the almost 9 seasons with their HC Justin Wilcox are enough and fired him, one game shy of the season end. Wilcox best season was 2019 with 8 wins, including a bowl win. In total his record is 48-55 and he never managed to get a positive record inside the conferences.

More upsets?

Louisiana won against Arkansas State, 34:30. That did put a dent into the championship plans of ASU. They are still in the hunt but need help from outside.
Pittsburgh did bury and dream the Yellow Jackets might have had for the rest of the season, by winning against the slightly favored GT, 42:28, on the road. With that is GT out of playoff conversations, and very likely out of the ACC championship game, if not total chaos happens on the last gameday.
Wisconsin did show some live with a win against ranked Illinois, 27:10. Illinois was favored over a score, but did not find any tool to stop the Badgers from scoring. The result has no immediate impact, since Illinois is already bowl eligible and Wisconsin is anyway out of postseason plays.
TCU was favored on the road against ranked Houston and won 17:14. By that did Houston officially drop out of the BIG-12 title race.
Army was favored by almost 10 points, but lost at home to Tulsa, 26:25. That was the 1st conference win for Tulsa of the season.
Wyoming was favored by a score against Nevada but lost 13:7. Both teams have down seasons this year and will not play bowls.
Marshall was favored by a field goal to get their 6th win this season, against Appalachian State. But the team did not get the game secured on the 4th quarter and App State won, 26:24. Both teams will look now on the last gameday for a 6th win.
The unbeaten Jacksonville State went to Florida International, as underdogs, and did (at least for me) lose to the Panthers, 21:27. Now the CUSA has no unbeaten team left and is wide open for the last weekend in a 3-team-tie.
Southern Miss had 2 games ahead to all other teams to reach the Championship game and did lose now 2 in a row to open up the division again. Grrrr. This time they lost to 2.5-point underdogs South Alabama, 35:42.
Utah State did sleep almost the whole season, but against Fresno State the team came in as visitors and took away the victory with a 28:17 win. Fresno was favored by an inch only but was hoping for a championship game spot. Well, that hope is buried, I guess.

Let’s look at the games I did pick as preview last week and review them.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 13

Sat. Nov 22
#22 Missouri @ #8 Oklahoma
Not sure, whether this game was really that exciting.
For me, likely not, because it was quite low scoring and with almost no big plays.
Most scoring did happen in the 1st half, so go figure how interesting the 2nd quarter must have been with a LOT of 3-and-outs.
At the end did Oklahoma win 17:6 and kept their playoff ambitions alive, while Missouri will likely drop out of the top 25.
#22 Missouri 6 @ #8 Oklahoma 17 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 23-8

#15 USC @ #7 Oregon
This game did slowly slide USC out of their hands, and they had nothing in their portfolio to stop that.
It did end actually with a few less USC points than I expected, but overall, quite in the range.
Almost each quarter was won by Oregon, just the 3rd was tied at 7.
Oregon did their homework and waits for rivalry weekend surprises, while USC can concentrate on a bowl game, no way this team will get a playoff spot, now.
#15 USC 27 @ #7 Oregon 42 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 24-8

#11 BYU @ Cincinnati
Another game, which did just plain and simple grinded to the result.
BYU did stumble a bit in the 2nd quarter and did let Cincinnati get close, but at the end was BYU just better and won this game.
I think we will see from the BIG-12 only 1 team inside the playoffs, likely the Champ. So, this win was important for that and to reach the Championship game in general.
#11 BYU 26 @ Cincinnati 14 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 25-8

And some other interesting games:

Fri. Nov 21
Hawai'i @ UNLV
I had some hope for Hawai’i, but the team did just forgot their offense in the middle of the pacific. They lost 10:38 and did by that not really boost their profile. I think it’s obvious they are not championship caliber this season. UNLV might be, if they win their last game and have some luck.
Jacks interesting games Score: 22-9

Sat. Nov 22
Louisville @ SMU
Not much to say here.
SMU did dominate and Louisville is for sure not the team anymore they did show at the beginning of the season.
SMU won 38:6 and can hope for a championship spot.
Louisville lost now 3 in a row but is already bowl eligible anyway.
Jacks interesting games Score: 23-9

East Carolina @ UTSA
UTSA did have a great day and won, 58:24.
I think East Carolina will think about that beating for a long time, which did likely send them out of a championship game spot and gave UTSA a bowl spot.
Jacks interesting games Score: 24-9

That’s it for gameday 13.

Let's go to the conference standings after week 13, just one week shy of the final standings.

Please note, that the rankings are for the CFP-ranking.

American Athletic Conference
There are 3 teams left on the top with 1 loss each inside the conference.
North Texas, #24 Tulane and Navy.
UNT will play Temple, Tulane will play Charlotte and Navy will play Memphis.
So, all 3 can win, can lose or some will lose or win.
That opens up a lot of scenarios, including the worst-case scenario, when all lose, and the 2-loss teams will come into the mix also.
South Florida and East Carolina are right now in that group and they will play also teams outside that group.
According to some pages, the best chance to reach the title game have UNT and Tulane based on their record and tiebreaker rules. If they win, they will likely be the top 2 teams.
That would mean Navy needs one of those teams to lose to have a title shot.
And according to those pages, South Florida can never reach the title game, since it would lose the tiebreaker in any cases.
East Carolina seems to have an outsider chance, but they need all teams to lose.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Here also 3 teams are sitting on top with 1 loss each.
#18 Virginia, #21 SMU and #22 Pittsburgh.
Virginia plays rival Virginia Tech, SMU plays Cal and Pitt plays Miami (FL).
Right behind them are 3 teams with 2 losses now, #23 Georgia Tech, #12 Miami and Duke.
GT is done inside the conference; Miami plays Pitt and Duke plays Wake Forest.
According to the internet, best chances have Virgina and SMU with simply winning, Pitt needs to win and a loss by Virginia or SMU.
If the 2-loss teams come into play, the strength of schedule is taking into the account, which can only be determined after the gameday.

BIG10 Conference
Still #2 Indiana and #1 Ohio State are the teams to beat, being perfect so far.
Indiana plays Purdue, while Ohio State plays rival Michigan.
Behind them are 2 1-loss teams, #6 Oregon and #15 Michigan.
Oregon will play Washington and Michigan takes on OSU.
Here, all 4 teams still have a chance. A major key is of course the OSU/Michigan game. If Ohio State wins, it seems Indiana will play any way in the title game against OSU, because they won against Oregon before.
If Michigan wins, you can play all variations of the other 2 teams winning or losing and you get different setups for the title game and Michigan in not always in it!

BIG-12 Conference
The 2 1-loss-teams in the lead are #5 Texas Tech and #11 BYU.
TTU will play West Virginia, BYU will play UCF.
Next behind them are #13 Utah and #20 Arizona State with 2 losses each.
Utah play Kansas and ASU will play Arizona.
Of course, if TTU and BYU win, all is done.
Utah needs to win and a TTU loss, a BYU win AND an ASU win to get into a 3-team-tiebreaker they would win.
ASU needs a win and either a BYU loss or a pack of TTU AND Utah loss.

Conference USA
Now at the top of the CUSA are 3 teams with 1 loss each.
Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky.
Missouri State has now 2 losses and is the lone team with such, but ineligible for post-season activities, thanks to their FCS-to-FBS-transition.
That means, the top 2 spots will be set by those 3 teams at the top only.
And guess what, Jacksonville State will play WKU and Kennesaw State will play Liberty.
That means, the winner of Jacksonville State/WKU will get a spot for sure and then it depends on the other game.
If Kennesaw wins, they are in.
If they lose, they would still be in, if WKU loses. If WKU wins, Kennesaw would be out, and Jacksonville State would play a rematch for the title.

Mid-American Conference
Western Michigan is still ahead by having just 1 loss.
Behind them are Central Michigan, Ohio, Toledo and Miami (OH).
WMU plays EMU, CMU plays Toledo, Ohio plays Buffalo and Miami plays Ball State.
The easy part is, if WMU wins, they are in. And the loser of CMU/Toledo is out, which is also clear. The rest is a nightmare of tiebreaker scenarios.
We will see.
But best chance has WMU and actually Miami, if all favorites, all leading teams, except CMU, would win.

Mountain West Conference
The conference is led by San Diego State by 1-loss alone.
With 2 losses behind Boise State, New Mexico and ULNV
SDSU plays New Mexico, Boise State plays Utah State and UNLV plays Nevada.
The easy way would be, if SDSU, Boise and UNLV would win.
Then SDSU and Boise State would play in the title game.
All other stuff will result in a complicated tiebreaker scenario with crazy rules which might include College Football Playoff rankings and computer rankings.
Those rules were setup (I hope so) to have the highest ranked team in the title game and if that wins, to give that the best chance to actually get into the playoffs, which would mean money for the conference.
Yes, understandable, but still crazy.

Southeastern Conference
#3 Texas A&M is the only team left inside the SEC with a perfect record so far.
Behind them are #4 Georgia, #7 Ole Miss and #10 Alabama with 1 loss each.
Texas A&M will play Texas, Georgia is done with SEC-games, Ole Miss will play Mississippi State and Alabama will play Auburn.
If Texas A&M wins, they are in the title game.
If they lose, they are still in, if Ole Miss AND Alabama lose.
Alabama is in, if they win and out with a loss.
Georgia needs an Alabama loss or a Texas A&M loss.
And Ole Miss needs Alabama AND Texas A&M to lose.

Sun Belt Conference
The East is won by James Madison.
The West has Southern Miss and Troy ahead with 2 losses each.
And they play against each other, which means, the winner of the game will face James Madison for the title.

Bowl eligible teams
Last week, 9 more teams get a ticket to the bowls, potentially.
In total now there are 72 teams eligible.

Week 6: Memphis,
Week 7: Georgia Tech, Navy, Indiana, Ohio State, BYU, Texas Tech, UNLV, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Week 8: Virginia, North Texas, South Florida, Tulane, Oregon, Cincinnati, Houston, Hawai’i, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, James Madison
Week 9: Louisville, Miami (FL), Virginia, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, TCU, Utah, Western Kentucky, Boise State, San Diego State, Tennessee, Texas, Southern Miss, Troy
Week 10: SMU, Arizona State, USC, Minnesota, Illinois, Kennesaw State, Notre Dame, UConn, Fresno State, New Mexico, Old Dominion
Week 11: East Carolina, Wake Forest, Cal, Arizona, Iowa State, Jacksonville State, Ohio, Coastal Carolina
Week 12: Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Toledo, LSU
Week 13: UTSA, Duke, Clemson, NC State, Northwestern, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH), Utah State.

Several teams are looking for their 6th win on that last gameday:
Army (they have 2 games left, with Navy-Army in 2 weeks), Temple, Rice, Florida State, Penn State, Rutgers, Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, UCF, Buffalo, Washington State, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Georgia Southern, Marshall, Appalachian State, Louisiana and Arkansas State.

So, plenty of drama left for the final gameday on that side.

That’s that for the overview.

Before we proceed to the preview section, a small note to the current brewing coaches hiring cascade, which will happen in the next few weeks.
The media has, likely rightfully, focused on the current HC of Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin. He is named for several high-profile openings, mainly for Florida and LSU.
As the business is working, he is very likely already sure, whether he will leave Ole Miss for one of those schools (or different one) or he will stay, but he is expected to announce that after the gameday, likely after the last game, which is on Friday.
But it could happen, if the team gets into the SEC Championship game and maybe beyond, that he will delay that announcement, which will create problems.
Because, once it’s know, what he will do, several other schools will know what is available and where.
We will see.

We can go now to the last gameday, which is traditionally RIVALRY WEEK!
And many of those games have this season big impacts on the conference standings and championship seatings.

I did s e l e c t only 6 games this year, since covering too many of those is just beyond my time available.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 13

Fri. Nov 28
#3 Texas A&M @ #16 Texas
This is likely the biggest game this weekend, even some might see of course the Iron Bowl (Alabama/Auburn) and/or The Game (Ohio State/Michigan) traditionally as bigger. But this year the impact and the level of strength of both teams in THIS matchup is bigger than any matchup.
And it’s a long-standing rivalry, which was only paused, when Texas A&M joined the SEC and Texas stayed in the BIG-12, until Texas did join the SEC also, last year.
Now the so called LONESTAR SHOWDOWN is on his way, again.
In short, Texas has a 2-game winning streak, if you want to count it that way, dating back to 2011!
Overall does Texas lead the series 77-35-5 and the series dates back to 1894.
This year a spot in the SEC Championship game is on the line, for Texas A&M, and a playoff spot is for Texas on the line, A&M is quite secure to get one anyway.
The math is clear for A&M, if they win, all dreams come true.
If they lose, it depends on Ole Miss and Alabama, whether they still play for a SEC championship or not.
For Texas the math is much clearer. If they win, they might rise in the ranks high enough to get a playoff spot, if they lose, for sure they are out.
The Aggies are favored by 2.5 points as unbeaten team coming in as guests, while the overall 8-3 Longhorns have to settle as underdog on their homefield.
I think, when you look at the betting line, it’s clear the people are not sure, what to expect here.
A&M was flawless this season, they come only close to a loss against Notre Dame (1-point win), Auburn (6-point win), Arkansas (3-point win) and South Carolina (1-point win), but overall, they won all of those.
Texas lost to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia, but all on the road.
Man, I don’t know either.
If Texas fields their top game, they are for sure hard to beat.
But they had on and off days, so it’s basically a lottery out there.
Motivation should be high, for both teams.
The coaches are also fine, even there might be little distraction on Texas side, for whatever reason. That HC had to declare he likes Texas, which is usually a statement you give, once the name pops up for other vacancies.
Will that disturb the process? I don’t know, likely not.
In doubt I give it to the home team, even I think it would be a big accomplishment for Texas to actually win this.
But the fact is, A&M did play not many top teams of the SEC and they had many close games, so at some point, your luck runs out.
Longhorns win.

Sat. Nov 29
#1 Ohio State @ #15 Michigan
It’s THE GAME, but for me, this season, it’s not the top game.
Right now, I have not a good feeling on both teams.
Let’s face the series, running since 1897, with Michigan leading 62-51-6.
Michigan won the last 4 games, including last season, when Ohio State did at the end win the National Championship.
And now, let’s face the current season.
Ohio State did play basically nobody so far, except Texas on day 1, which they won by a score in a low scoring game.
Since then, was the toughest team they did play ... well, which one? The ranked Illinois team? The no longer ranked Penn State team?
Michigan is by far the toughest opponent since day 1.
And we don’t know, how tough the Wolverine actually are, because they did also not play many tough teams.
They lost to Oklahoma, lost to USC, and believe it or not, since Oklahoma mid-September, no rankled team since then.
Sure, they are floating on the top level of the BIG10, they won many conference games, but are they really TOP level national wide?
We don’t know.
Ohio State is favored to win, by 9.5 points. On the road is that a statement. But sure, Ohio State is flawless, and Michigan lost twice so far. And likely the Buckeyes have the national championship preseason boost.
If you are ranked at the start of the season and never lose, who has the balls to say ‘na, they are strong, but not THAT strong, I rank them #10 or #20 or so?’ Nobody. This will be the test and if they win, they will be #1, at least until the BIG10 Championship game.
Do I believe in a Wolverines win?
Not really.
We might see a surprise, but overall did Ohio State at least look a bit stronger.
But in THE GAME, everything is possible.
Buckeyes win.

San Diego State @ New Mexico
Surprise!
I put one of the most important games from the Mountain West into the TOP3.
It’s not even a rivalry game!
And the impact is hard to predict, of not San Diego State wins.
But I liked the matchup, and I liked the opportunity to present something outside the power 4 conference bubble.
San Diego State is favored by just 1.5 points. Not much.
Their whole season was quite convincing, except the loss to Washington State (gameday 2) and Hawai’i. But both were on the road and might have explanations. Early in the season stuff might not be perfect in synch and that road trip to Hawai’i is always a grinder.
Here the trip is shorter, and the team is hopefully in shape.
New Mexico had a slightly worse season, losing to Michigan on day 1 and then on the road back-to-back against San Jose State and Boise State.
At home did the team win all games, but those were all against weaker teams.
Likely San Diego State is the toughest one coming to town this season.
I expect the Aztecs to win here, in a close game.
New Mexico is on a 5-game winning streak, but had some close games in that series against weaker teams, so I expect the Aztecs to exploit some weakness of the Lobos defense and grind this home.
Aztecs win.

And some other interesting games:

Fri. Nov 28
#4 Georgia @ #23 Georgia Tech
This is called CLEAN, OLD-FASHIONED HATE and is played since 1893, with Georgia leading by a mile in the series.
The last 7 games went all to the Bulldogs, but Georgia Tech has one of the best teams in recent years and Georgia, while for sure fielding a good team, is not on the same peak as in some years before.
Still the betting line is Georgia, -13.5.
The reality is, that Georgia Tech is just not on the same level as the Georgia and only human errors can bring this Bulldogs team down.
On the line is for Georgia eventually a playoff spot, we don’t know how deep they would fall in the rankings if they lose, and for GT, if they win, I think a playoff spot is still a wet dream and too far away, now.
But the win alone would be a great party at GT, for sure.
I personally think we will see a tough game, but a Georgia win.
Bulldogs win.

Sat. Nov 29
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State
The CUSA championship spots are on the line here.
The winner will have a sure spot in that game, the loser has to watch the Kennesaw game closely.
Being the guest is WKU favored by 2.5 points. Not much, but a bit surprising.
That loss by Jacksonville State last weekend did not fuel much confidence, as it seems.
I think, they will try their best at home and get this game under control.
But I might be wrong.
Gamecocks win.

Troy @ Southern Miss
And here we have the Sun Belt East division on the line.
The winner will win the division and will play James Madison for the Championship.
Can’t be better than that, right?
Despite the fact that Southern Miss did drop 2 games in a row to actually getting in this showdown situation, they are the favorite by 6.5 points.
That’s quite a lot.
Too much?
I don’t know. It seems the Sun Belt is quite gameday form driven and has no clear dominating team, which makes it hard to predict a game.
Does Southern Miss get their troubles solved?
Did Troy get their stuff together and get back on track after losing 2 in road 3 weeks ago?
I don’t know.
In doubt I pick the home team, and I will do it here.
Golden Eagles win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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