2026-01-15 08:58

And we have a Championship matchup and for sure, nobody had that matchup in mind, when predicting the season.

Here the reviews of the semis.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL

Thur., January 8 2026
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
#10 Miami vs #6 Ole Miss
The Hurricanes were in the 1st quarter clearly the better team, stopped Ole Miss on 2 drives after 3 plays each, and did on offense get some production, with the only flaw, that they had to settle for a field goal on their 1st drive and had to punt in the 2nd.
Then suddenly did Ole Miss get a big play out of their running game and scored a touchdown starting the 2nd quarter, which could have taken the wind out of Miami.
But it did not.
Miami took the ball on the next drive and went over the field in a long, controlled and time-consuming drive to score a TD on their own and reclaiming the lead.
Ole Miss got the ball back and had a shorter drive, capped with a field goal to tie the game and Miami did start another slow drive, only to exploiting the Ole Miss defense on a 2nd and 6 for a 50+ yard play and a score.
From here, the offense production did halt, except another Ole Miss field goal, until the break with Miami leading 17:13.
The 3rd quarter was then the error-prone quarter with Miami and Ole Miss missing field goal attempts and Miami did add an INT after a longer drive close the Ole Miss red zone.
Ole Miss got some points out of that, with another field goal, trailing now only by 1 point.
On to the 4th quarter, in which Ole Miss did hit another field goal to take the lead, 19:17.
But Miami was not done, did find another hole in the pass defense of the Rebels and scored a touchdown when needed to get back on top, 24:19.
Now time became an issue, Ole Miss had 5 minutes left and tried to get the needed touchdown, and 2 big plays did deliver this, and got even the 2-point-try, 27:24 Rebels.
But all this way to fast, Miami with 3 minutes left to counter.
And they did, with a long drive, eating away the clock, getting close the endzone.
On 2nd and goal was the whole Rebels defense so focused to cover all receiving targets, that the Miami QB was basically able to walk into the endzone after some scrambling in the pocket.
The Canes took the lead and Ole Miss had 18 ticks left.
Well, it came down to a hail mary, which was incomplete, and Miami won 31:27 to reach the Championship game.
I think Miami did a good job on defending against that explosive Rebels offense and their offense did enough to win the game.
Jacks BOWL Score: 24-20

Fri., January 9 2026
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
#5 Oregon vs #1 Indiana
Well, maybe the 1st play of the game after the kickoff was an indicator of this game.
Oregon had the ball 1st and, on that 1st play did the QB throw and INT, which was returned for a pick six.
Man, that must have hurt.
The Ducks then did get the ball back and marched over the field and scored a touchdown to tie the game, which made hope for an offense battle.
Indiana came on the field and had a scoring drive after that, and from here it went downhill for Oregon.
Trailing now 7:14 did their next drive not produce points, but they did also stop Indiana.
Sounds OK, only that on the 1st play on the next Oregon drive the QB did some hand move, which did look like a pass attempt or a hinted pass attempt, on which the ball slipped out of his hands and the fumble was recovered by the Hoosiers and 3 plays later it was 7:21.
Then it became ridiculous.
Oregon punt, Indiana Touchdown, Oregon fumble, Indiana Touchdown, Oregon shortly before the break a missed field goal on top.
The Hoosiers did lead 35:7 at the half!
After the break Indiana with the ball and another TD, Oregon then finally with another TD on their own, and they managed to stop the next Hoosiers drive.
Now the comeback? Nope, on 4th and 1 on Indy 31-yard line a stop and a turnover on downs.
Now already in the 4th quarter did Indiana start to eat down the clock, leading 42:15.
They had to punt, but as did Oregon and worse, the punt was blocked, and Indiana got the ball in great field position.
Next Indiana drive added a score after 3 plays, 49:15.
Oregon now already desperate, went for 4th down on the next drive and failed again.
Indy did score one more time and Oregon got a score on their last drive, but that was only cosmetics on the scoring penal.
Indiana continues the best season of school history and will play Miami for the Championship.
Jacks BOWL Score: 25-20

That’s it.
Now the college football world does wait until on 20th of January the Championship game is played.

Yesterday, during my sport time, I did realize, that this championship game is so odd, regarding the participants, that eventually we will see a split championship this season.

Split championships are not uncommon in college football, since the competition has so many participants and the structures are so wild.

It might be an odd idea for someone, who loves the NFL (now with 32 teams and a playoff system) or maybe European football (also known as soccer with usually a round robin system for league games and additionally playoff systems for cup games), where each season a single champion is crowned (but even there not always a single team gets all the trophies in all competitions).

The difference to college football is, that there never was a unique league structure playing for a single trophy, and the number of teams involved is much higher than any pro league does feature.

In FBS right now there are 134 teams in 10 conference plus independent teams.
Each conference has their own number of teams, schedule, championship rules and the only common thing between all those teams is, that they play under the NCAA – FBS framework and that each team has usually 3 to 4 games against teams not within their conference.

So, historically it did look this way, that after a full season you had conference champions, sometimes even shared inside the conference (without a championship game), and no measurement on which team or teams were nationwide the best.

Here the press jumped into place and did build those rankings, most famous the Associated Press (AP) poll. The base idea was, if many people do state their opinion, on which team is better than the other, the combined rankings can’t be too off the reality, given the small data sample each team does provide (usual 12 games, in the past even less).

The team ranked highest at the end of the season could claim the national title and since there were and still are, lots of those rankings, it did happen that in one ranking team A would be highest ranked, in another ranking team B would be highest ranked team.

Hence, team A and team B could claim national titles for that season.

Since the introduction of the national championship game (first in the BCS system, then the 4-team-playoff and now the 12-team-playoff-system), this did get fewer and fewer but did happen. The reason for that was, that the selection process for the national title game was always based a fraction of all polls, so it happened that the selected teams playing for the title were not the highest ranked teams in polls NOT used for the selection process. And if then even the lower ranked team in the championship game did win, the big debate started again, who would be at highest place.

Surprisingly such stuff did happen the last time not long ago, 2017.
At that time, a 4-team-playoff-system was in place and the teams selected were named by a committee, which did post a ranking after the championship games weekend and the top 4 teams would play semis and the winners of those would play the championship game.
The 4 teams selected were Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama, from first to fourth, by the committee.

At the end did Alabama win the championship game and AP-Poll and Coaches Poll did name Alabama national champion, but a different team, UCF, did play a perfect season and won the AAC and did win in the Peach Bowl to finish 13-0 and were left out of the 4-team-playoffs, mainly, because the committee did think that UCFs wins, mostly from games within the American Conference, did not count as much as the wins the 4 selected teams did have. A strength of schedule issue and some sort of marketing issue. The American is a group of 5 conference, inferior to a power 5 conference, so any team from that conference can’t be as strong as a team from the top of a power 5 conference and since the top 4 teams shall battle it out, UCF did not belong into that mix. At least from the committee perspective, who ranked them at #12.

UCF was ranked at #10 in AP and coaches poll prior the bowls and afterwards, when UCF did win against #7 Auburn in a bowl, they were ranked #6 and #7 in the 2 major polls. The Colley Matrix, a different poll, did s e l e c t UCF as highest ranked team for that season and UCF did claim this ranking as national title.

A similar fate did happen to Alabama in 2016, where they were also named by Colley national champion, with Clemson winning the national championship game against Alabama. The difference is, Alabama did not claim the title, while UCF did in 2017, totally knowing, that they never had a chance to get a national title at that time on the regular processes.

But that was just some sort of exception to the regular process, since it did involve not the 2 major polling systems. A similar thing did happen even in 2004. At that time the so-called Bowl Championship series (BCS) was in place, which did feature every year one single game between the #1 ranked team and the #2 ranked to determine the better one. The ranking was gathered by some sort of meta-ranking of several human polls (like AP and coaches) and computer polls. #1 USC did play #2 Oklahoma and USC did win. But #3 Auburn did win in their bowl game against high ranked Virginia Tech and were named national champion by a smaller ranking site named ‘GBE CF Ratings’ and Auburn did claim that title also.

But a major fraction happens, if AP and Coaches do not agree, like in 2003, the last time that did happen.

At that time also BCS was valid, with a little different formular for the meta-ranking. As result Oklahoma and LSU were selected to play for the national championship (which LSU as lower ranked team won), while USC, named prior the championship game as #1 in AP and Coaches’ poll, were left out of the Championship game as #3 ranked team in BCS.
They had to play high ranked Michigan and won that game.

AFTER the national championship game, the coaches poll did name LSU #1, hence national champion, since the rule was always for that poll, that who wins the championship game will get selected #1 in coaches poll.
But AP poll did vote USC as #1 (with 48 place one votes, while LSU got 17 place one votes) and LSU as #2. Hence, a share in the national championship.

Ok, so with that as history lesson in mind, why am I convinced we might see a share for the national championship?

Let’s face the fact, we had a 12-team-playoff bracket in which we now have the #1 seat playing the #10 seat against each other for the national championship.

By rule, the winner of the championship game will be named #1 inside coaches poll.

But the AP-poll will be named individually and that does have some potential.

We had in AP-poll prior the playoffs #1 Indiana (collecting all place one votes at that time), #2 Georgia, #3 Ohio State, #4 Texas Tech, #5 Oregon, #6 Ole Miss, #7 Texas A&M, #8 Oklahoma, #9 Notre Dame, #10 Miami and #11 Alabama. The rest does not matter.

The coaches poll was identical (which is not common for the top 11, but can happen).

The committee ranking did name Ohio State at #2 and for whatever reason #9 Alabama and #10 Miami, which left #11 Notre Dame out of the playoffs (because of 2 lower ranked conference champs). The rest was in the same sorting, just slightly adjusted because those teams mentioned did get higher ranks and the rest did shift deeper.

In total not much difference PRIOR the playoff bracket.

Then the playoff games did happen, and we saw all participants losing, except Indiana with 2 very convincing wins against Alabama and Oregon, and Miami with 3 good win against Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss.

If that would not be playoffs, but regular season and we would have seen such a period of games between ranked teams, for sure Miami would have ranked higher with every win, but Indiana would not have ranked lower, as already #1. How high Miami would have risen, is up for speculations. They have already 2 losses, so the polling people would have to make up their mind, which team with also 2 losses (basically all of the playoff teams, except Indiana) would have to be put where. Could be Miami would be #2, could be they would be only TOP5.

And now the championship game comes at 20th of January, which can have 3 outcomes.

Indiana can win, which will mean, the prior the playoff ranked #1 team did win all game and won the national championship. No doubt, AP-poll and coaches-poll would make them #1.

Miami can win by a mile or so, so a real slaughter, like 30+ points. How will the AP-people rank that winning team, which lost during the season 2 games, but won in that last game, against the former #1 team, by a mile. Likely the AP-poll would see lots of place one votes for Miami, maybe all, likely the majority. So, likely a single champ also in this scenario.

But what will happen, if Miami wins in a close game? That third scenario would mean at the end, that the former #1 team, until then flawless and with lots of convincing wins against ranked teams, lost their 1st game against a team, which lost already 2 games during the season, but just by a few points. Coaches poll will name Miami champ, but what will happen with AP-poll? Sure, that loss will cut into the perfect image of Indiana, but enough to push them to #2 or worse? I’m not convinced. Because I’m not convinced Miami will be voted at place one in the majority. Higher, yes, but place one with 2 losses during the season and that one close win now? Not sure.

Everything is possible, and likely the direct compare WILL lead into a championship of the winning team. But the chances are not really bad, that Indiana already HAS that championship won, regardless the result coming. And that scenario does involve only AP and Coaches. Colley or any other poll might calculate Indiana #1 regardless the results of the championship game. Totally open is then, whether Indiana would CLAIM a title, if any poll, major or minor, would rank them #1?

I don’t know. We will see.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Tue, January 20th 2026
College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T
#10 Miami vs #1 Indiana
@Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
We have the 1st time a participant playing on its homefield in a championship game, since the Bowl Coalition Championship game in 1995 (for the 1994 season) featuring Miami (playing in the Orange Bowl at that time) against Nebraska. Miami lost on that game, which you can interpretate as you like, since Miami is again the field own, even they will be treated as away team in the championship game.
Since starting the CFP-Series, the record of winning is (year is the season, not the date of contest) Ohio State (2014, 2024), Alabama (2015, 2017, 2020), Clemson (2016, 2018), LSU (2019), Georgia (2021, 2022) and Michigan (2023).
That makes at 11 games, 6 titles for the SEC, 3 for the BIG10 and 2 for the ACC.
This season the winner will be a new one, not winning the playoffs ever before.
Miami won the National Champion ship so far 5 times, the last one in 2001.
Indiana had never won a National Championship before.
The betting line this season is Indiana -8.5, which is a lot.
Historically, the favorites won all games since the last upset for 2018 season between Alabama and Clemson, where Bama was favored to win and Clemson did win by a mile. Clemson also upset Alabama 2 years earlier, and Ohio State did upset Oregon for the 2014 season.
That means of 11 games did so far 3 times the underdog win, and the favorites do ride a 6-game winning streak.
And it looks like everyone loves Indiana to win this.
Almost 3 of 4 picks are towards Indiana, and that does not come from the Cinderella story the program can promote so boldly this season.
They have the BEST season the program ever had, so many titles, so many win, playing for the national title.
If the coach wins this, he will be a legend inside the state forever. I mean Bear Bryant level.
And the team did play so flawless this season that the only ‘bad’ games are two 3-point wins against Penn State and Ohio State.
And against the last few teams, ranked high enough to play in the playoffs, all dominant wins.
Hard to find a spot to make a case for Miami.
And Miami had a rollercoaster season.
They started strong, did have 2 bad games mid-season, dropped out of the ACC championship race because of that, squeezed into the playoffs spots and then did upset Texas A&M and Ohio State in the first 2 games. Against Ole Miss they were the favorite, now again they are the underdog.
What to make out of this?
On one side we have Indiana with a great offense and a defense capable to stop dynamic offense like Oregon or hard pounding offense like Ohio State.
On the other side we have Miami with a good offense and a defense, which is able to make plays and often maybe bending, but not breaking.
Some say, Indiana will face the toughest defense against Miami. I’m not convinced on that statement, since Ole Miss, another team with an excellent offense, scored 27 points against them and the main reason the Hurricanes won was not their defense stops on every down, it were big plays on both sides of the ball, but especially because they did force turnovers.
That opens the question, whether THAT defense will again be able to force the needed turnovers, only this time against the Heisman-trophy winner QB led offense?
I’m quite sure, the answer is no, and with that, the whole case against Indiana stands on very wobbling feet.
Will Miami score enough points? Not sure.
Will Indiana gain yardage and score? Very likely lots of it.
You get likely the feeling where this is going.
I personally was not sure, Indiana would stand the test, when it did matter most, starting with the BIG10 Championship game.
But they did! And did again in the playoffs, tremendously.
I think they ARE the best team this season and will very likely win.
Hoosiers win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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