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2024-11-20 07:43

Oh, that weekend did not end in a good way for some contenders and one matchup for a conference championship game is fixed already.

How does it feel, when you are leading the conference for almost the whole season and then you lose against a then-3-6-team (Kansas), at home? Ask BYU players, fans and program members. The Cougars got a check with reality and came out with a close loss. That did open up the BIG-12 a bit and might send the conference into a non-bye-week-scenario for the playoffs, means a tough road to a National Championship.

And then there was that game between Tennessee and Georgia, where the Vols had the chance to proof they are the real deal and Georgia is taking a season off from national relevance and guess what? They failed and the SEC looks more chaotic than last week.

And even it has no national relevance, if you were contender, got a bad loss 3 weeks ago and needed help to get back into the top seat, got the help and got back into the driver seat ... wouldn't it be a good idea to win at home against a then-2-7-team (Troy)? Well, I guess Georgia Southern did not feel good about that and lost the game to make the Sun Belt East division a bit more spicy.

At least there are teams, which stay relatively consistent. Ball State did lose on the road against Buffalo in OT and fell to 3-7. If I'm cynical, I don't understand why they did fire their HC afterwards, since the team did best what it can do best, lose. But of course, I'm not that way. The program gave Mike Neu all the time he needed, and he started 2016 with a team in decline, and after a period of adjustments, the team won the conference in 2020 and won a bowl that season on top (7-1 overall, shortened corona season). Unfortune did then the team get 1 winless every season, which brings us to the current 3-7 season. In total Neus records with the team is 40-63, which is a much worse win percentage than his predecessor, who was fired already after 2 declining seasons. So, Ball State is looking for a new HC.

And another HC did get the Axe already. The Temple Owls did fire Stan Drayton after 2+ (almost 3) seasons. He did win 3 games in each season with the team, overall 9-25. For a program, which did give several good, if not great coaches, a steppingstone in their career, this result is way below any expectation. Temple will look sharpe for a new HC, off course looking for a massive improvement. The only bad taste in this is, the firing came 1 day after the OT WIN of the Owls against FAU but given the market circumstances and the status overall of the team, it does not matter much. The guy was toast anyway.

A day later the chopping did go into overtime and more coaches did get the axe. UMass did fire Don Brown, whom they have hired for 2022 for his 2nd term with the team (1st was 2004-2008, when they still were an FCS team). Brown had 2+ seasons with the team and 1-11, 3-9 and 2-8 in those games. It was clear, Brown would never be THE answer, but firing him that way is again a no-class-act. If the program would be fair to Brown, they have to admit that the school itself is bad on organizing a football team. No coach did win more than 4 games since the team became an FBS-program. So, they need more than a coach, they need an experienced person, who can shift the environment to the level needed to compete on that level.

Next on the block is Tom Herman, now former HC of Florida Atlantic. Herman was fired after just 1+ seasons and a record of 4-8 and 2-8. The loss last weekend was the last piece, which was an OT loss against Temple (yes, that Temple, which did axe their HC after that OT win, so that game did cost 2 coaches the job, not bad), the 4th loss in a row. Here, FAU has all the resources a team can have, even now more money than before, since the team did shift to the AAC and the former HC of Houston and Texas did fail big time. That program did hire after Lane Kiffin left to Ole Miss (and does do there a good job) with 2 conference championships in a row 2 more washed up power-5-HCs, but those 2, Willie Taggert and Tom Herman, did both not even came close to Kiffins success. It will be interesting to see, whether the AD does go the same route again, so find a washed-up-HC of a power-5-school (where there are plenty to find) and hope for some sort of redemption period, as it happened for Kiffin, or whether they go a different route.

And the last HC change so far this week is the firing of Biff Poggi, the now former HC of Charlotte, after 1+ season. Poggi made (like Herman) the shift to the AAC and the team did not shift gear, it stayed bad. 3-9 and 3-7 are the results and that means the guy responsible had to go. In this case here I don't know, why they did hire the guy in the 1st place, but they did, and it failed. Next.

Let's go to the conference standings after week 12.

American Athletic Conference
The Conference Championship game is set, Army vs Tulane, only the stadium is not set yet. The final standings #1 team will host the Championship game at home.

Atlantic Coast Conference
SMU keeps on winning and stays undefeated.
The 1-loss-group is still Miami and Clemson, with Clemson praying for a Miami loss in one of the last 2 games (or an SMU loss at some point), because otherwise Miami would get the championship spot.
No other team is left in the mix, so 2 of those 3 teams will play for the Championship.

BIG-12 Conference
With BYU getting a huge upset at home, the top seats are right now set by 1-loss-teams BYU and Colorado.
With 2 losses are now Arizona State and Iowa State
Kansas State and West Virginia did both lose and are now at 3 losses, likely out of reach with 3 other teams.
BYU has to take on Arizona State next, Colorado on paper the easiest road left and Iowa State the toughest remaining games.

BIG10 Conference
No changes in the BIG10 this weekend.
Perfect are still Indiana and Oregon, while with 1 loss behind them are Ohio State and Penn State.
The rest can just add wins for the bowl levels and annoy eventually rivals and contenders.
Oregon is already set for a Championship spot, so the 2nd seat is played out by the 3 other teams, with Indiana playing Ohio State next.

Conference USA
Western Kentucky did lose this weekend and left Jacksonville State as lone unbeaten team.
WKU is now together with Sam Houston as 1-loss behind them.
Liberty is crawling in the shadows with 2 losses.
And here comes the fun part, all 4 teams do play in the last 2 games teams from within those 4-team group.
So, whatever happens, it will be determined within the group. Could end in clear Championship contenders, could end with a big mess.

Mid-American Conference
And while we are at a mess, the MAC is still wide open.
Miami (OH), Ohio and Bowling Green have all 1 loss.
Only Western Michigan lost a crucial game and dropped to 2-losses.
With 2 losses behind are now Western Michigan, Buffalo and Toledo.
Many of the teams in that list have at least 1 game left against a team from that list, so it will (likely) shrink down. But it could end in a big tie breaker scenario.

Mountain West Conference
Boise State did seal a seat in the Championship game.
Colorado State is also unbeaten, but a game behind.
UNLV has still 1 loss and waits for their chance, which would need at least one CSU loss and 2 more UNLV wins.
CSU and UNLV have tougher games next weekend, maybe then is the deal done.

Southeastern Conference
The conference is closing in to the final games and have right now only 2 teams left with 1 loss, Texas and Texas A&M.
Good to know, they will face each other on season finale.
Behind them are waiting with 2 losses, Georgia (all conference games done), Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss.
Depended on the results of the last 2 weekends, the tiebreaker will be a mess and will favor one or another team.
I don't think any 3-loss team will get close to a SEC Championship game spot.
Beside the Lone Star Showdown, NONE of the teams in this list will play a team from that list. Yeah.

Sun Belt Conference
The Sun Belt teams did decide to keep the division exciting, so both top teams did lose.
Georgia Southern lost to a bad team and dropped to 2 losses, which leaves Marshall leading the East with 1 loss.
With 2 tough cookies left on the schedule, this is not set in stone.
Georgia Southern dropped to the 2-loss-team-group, which has also James Madison.
Georgia Southern has the easiest remaining schedule, but that did not help last gameday neither.
James Madison plays Marshall in one of those games remaining and might be able to come out of this mess as the division winner.
Old Dominion lost this weekend and dropped to 3 losses.
I don't think they will play a role here, beside winning crucial games.
The West is still led by Louisiana, even they lost last weekend. Granted, that was the toughest team left on the schedule, so likely they will win the division next week or in 2 weeks.
If they would lose all games, Texas State, Arkansas State and South Alabama are waiting for their chances with 2 losses.

That's it for the conferences.

Bowl eligible teams
11 more teams got their 6th win this weekend, which sums up now to 64 teams being already bowl eligible.

Week 6: Miami, Indiana
Week 7: Army, Pittsburgh, BYU, Iowa State, Oregon, Penn State and Texas
Week 8: Clemson, Duke, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Illinois, Kansas State, UNLV, Washington State, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana and Notre Dame
Week 9: Tulane, Ohio State, Colorado, Sam Houston, Boise State, Alabama, Ole Miss and James Madison
Week 10: Louisville, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Iowa, Minnesota, Western Kentucky, UConn, Toledo, Colorado State, Vanderbilt and Georgia Southern
Week 11: Georgia Tech, TCU, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Ohio, San Jose State, South Carolina and Marshall
Week 12: East Carolina, North Carolina, Baylor, Washington, Rutgers, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Texas State and Arkansas State

And since we are closing in on the season end, I could not resist to have a look and the teams still in the mix for a bowl spot.

ALMOST THERE (Need one more win to become eligible)
South Florida, UTSA, North Texas, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, NC State, California, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan, USC, Nebraska, Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, New Mexico, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma, Coastal Carolina, South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe

IF WE DO IT, WE BECOME MEN OF STEEL (Need to win all remaining games to get into the bowl mix)
Wake Forest, Kansas, Houston, UCF, Arizona, Utah, UCLA, Michigan State, Northwestern, Maryland, Louisiana Tech, Oregon State, Auburn, Kentucky, Old Dominion and Appalachian State

78 bowl spots are available.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 12

Sat. Nov 16
#17 Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh at home is always a tough spot, but often does Pittsburgh have a game or two in the season, when they just not play well.
One of those games did come last weekend.
Against a top contender, you need to take every chance you get and Pitt did not do that.
They did not score after a Clemson Fumble, they did miss a field goal try, they did allow they Tigers to score within 45 seconds prior the end of the 1st half.
The game was basically lost after that 1st half, with Clemson leading 17:7.
The 3rd quarter went scoreless, and Pitt did pile up more errors, including a lost fumble, and later a field goal after a 1st and goal on the Clemson 2!
Yes, a bit later did Pitt tie the game to 17, and even took the lead a bit later with a field goal.
But again was Pitt unable to score a TD inside the red zone and after that drive did Clemson just took a walk in the park for 20 seconds and 3 plays and scored the game winning TD.
Chances. Not used. By Pitt.
Consequences of that game are, that Clemson finished their ACC schedule strong, but needs help to get into the ACC Championship game.
Pittsburgh did shatter their own dreams of the season and can only hope for a good bowl spot.
#17 Clemson 24 @ Pittsburgh 20 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 27-10

#25 Tulane @ Navy
This is easy.
Tulane was just totally the best team in this game and did dominate Navy.
They earned the trip to the Championship game, while Navy has likely only 2 goals left. a) win against Army to push them out of the playoffs and b) play in a bowl.
#25 Tulane 35 @ Navy 0 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 28-10

#6 Tennessee @ #11 Georgia
Tennessee had the better start but did slowly lose ground in the 1st half and the teams did go into the break with a tie at 17.
Then did Georgia come out of the locker room, willing to win the game, while it seemed the Vols did leave their offense in the tunnels, because nothing did work anymore.
Georgia did pull away and when Tennessee did try to catch up, they did even turn the ball over.
At the end did Georgia finish their SEC schedule strong and has still chances to get into the SEC final.
Tennessee is a bit sandwiched between direct compares and only the results of the last 2 weeks will determine the winner of a likely big list of teams with a tie breaker.
#6 Tennessee 17 @ #11 Georgia 31 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 28-11

And some other interesting games:

James Madison @ Old Dominion
James Madison did come back from behind and won against Old Dominion, 35:32. That means Old Dominion has a hard time to eventually still winning the division, while JMU likely just have to win and they win the division. Of course, Marshall will have a say in that, too.
Jacks interesting games Score: 23-16

South Alabama @ Louisiana
Louisiana, the favorite, did play bad in the 1st half and trailed 3:24. They did waste the 3rd quarter with only a field goal to get closer and exploded in the 4th with 16 unanswered points, but failed the on-side-kick, so lost 22:24.
Not too bad for them, with still 1 loss less than anybody behind them, still an unnecessary defeat.
Jacks interesting games Score: 23-17

San Diego State @ UNLV
UNLV did dominate the 1st half and did manage the 2nd half to win the game 41:20.
The Aztecs did just play awful in the 1st half and committed too many errors and did also let their Rebels offense run wild with almost no resistance.
Jacks interesting games Score: 24-17

And some more funny result of week 12:

- Bowling Green did win against Western Michigan, 31:13. WMU did get by those 2 losses in a row and dropped in the standings dramatically, from leader to hopeful in 2 weeks.
- UTSA is still aiming for a bowl spot and won against North Texas, 48:27. That leaves them with 1 win less than needed and North Texas also needs 1 win more to get to a bowl.
- Kansas won against BYU, on the road, 17:13. That might drop every team from the BIG-12 out of the playoffs, except the conference champ. But the next weeks will decide that.
- Arizona State did beat Kansas State, 24:14, on the road. With that big win, the Sun Devils are right now in best waiting position behind the 2 leading teams. If they beat BYU next weekend, they might get into the driver seat for the Championship game.
- New Mexico won against Washington State, 38:35. Big win for the Lobos, in need for another win for a bowl spot.
- Stanford did upset Louisville, 38:35. Louisville did look like they might still have a chance to get into the ACC Championship game, if they keep on winning and hope for the best, but with that defeat, the dream is over.
- South Carolina won against Missouri, 34:30. The Gamecocks are done with their SEC schedule and will battle Clemson for the rivalry on gameday final to eventually getting into a playoff spot or to at least keep Clemson out of the playoffs.
- Florida did win against LSU, 27:16. Two things to notice here. LSUs HC Kelly did get angry during the game, so nerves became blank in purple and gold country. And I have to admit that Florida did turn the ship around big time after a bad start into the season. With FSU on season finale, chances for a bowl spot are good right now.
- Louisiana Tech did use their chances and won against Western Kentucky, 12:7. LT still needs 2 wins to get to a bowl, but that win here did keep the hopes alive. WKU could have used a win to boost their chances for a Championship spot, but they still have all the chances with the last 2 games. But another loss could be too much.
- Air Force won against Oregon State, 28:0. Tough season for Beavers fans, who are for sure used to lose, but in the past few seasons there was hope and bowls, but with the new HC, they are in a bad transition phase and still need 2 wins for a bowl spot and that Air Force game was the easiest game left. Now Boise State and Washington State are left to play. Likely no bowl this season.
- Rutgers did win against Maryland, 31:17. That did give Rutgers a bowl spot and Maryland a tough spot to also get into a bowl with games against Iowa and Penn State still coming and 2 wins still needed. Likely is the season over soon for Maryland.

The 3rd committee ranking was published yesterday and because of the upsets of last weekend, the rankings did of course change.

Still 2 gamedays away from the final picture for the conference championship games, and 3 gamedays away from the final committee rankings for the playoff seating.

No changes at the top of the BIG10, with #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State, #4 Penn State and #5 Indiana.
But new came in #25 Illinois.
The Ohio State-Indiana-game will shuffle the setup for sure.

The SEC teams did get a new look with Tennessees loss to Georgia. Still on top is #3 Texas, then #7 Alabama, #9 Ole Miss, #10 Georgia, #11 Tennessee, #15 Texas A&M, #18 South Carolina and #23 Missouri.
LSU did drop from the rankings.
With Texas-Texas A&M next week, this will get another makeover.

With #6 Notre Dame the only team is now highly ranked out of the group of teams, which can only get an at-large-spot.
The PAC-12 team Washington State lost last weekend and dropped out of the rankings.

Thanks to the BYU-loss did the BIG-12 lose their highest ranked team and the ACC did rise to the 3rd highest conference rank. Now they are #8 Miami, followed by #13 SMU and #17 Clemson.
Louisville lost and dropped out of the rankings.
With Clemson-South Carolina next week, this will get a shift for sure.

The Mountain West did win from the BYU-loss and their highest ranked team would under the assumption being the champ get a bye for the 1st round, which would be the greatest accomplishment the 12-team-playoff could achieve, since in the past group-of-5-teams basically had no chance to win a championship and were treated as 2nd level teams and here #12 Boise State would get a bye ahead of the ACC champ.
With #24 UNLV a 2nd team did get into the rankings this week, out of the MWC. If both would play for the MW-crown, the winner could benefit from that, even if UNLV would win.

And the big loser of this weeks rankings is the BIG-12, demoted to a non-bye-week-spot, thanks to BYUs loss.
The team is still the highest ranked member of the BIG-12, now #14 BYU, followed by #16 Colorado, #21 Arizona State and #22 Iowa State.
Kansas State did drop out.

And the last teams ranked are from the American Athletics, #19 Army and #20 Tulane.
With Army-Notre Dame playing this weekend, there will be a change next week.

Again, assuming the highest ranked team if each conference would be the champ, we have BIG10 (Oregon), SEC (Texas), ACC (Miami) and new MWC (Boise State) as the 4 conferences highest ranked and by that with a bye week. As 5th conference then would be in the BIG-12 (BYU) at #14, having a seat in the 1st round.

The last 7 seats would be filled with the highest ranked teams, which would be #2 Ohio State, #4 Penn State, #5 Indiana, #6 Notre Dame, #7 Alabama, #9 Ole Miss and #10 Georgia.

Because #12 Boise State would be in on a bye week and #14 BYU would be in for 1st round, it would no longer be the top 12 teams (like last 2 weeks ago), so #11 Tennessee would NOT be in.

But in the last 3 gamedays, the shifts will be brutal, so if you are a fan of a certain team here, the only thing you can take out of this is, if your team keeps on winning, the spotting will likely become only better and if it plays in a championship game and wins, it will get a boost on top.
If it loses, the margin for recovery gets thinner and thinner.

I will keep you updated.

2nd to last gameday (except the damn Army-Navy-game) for the regular season is coming and for several teams, this will be the last chance or BEST chance.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 13

Sat. Nov 23
#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio State
This is it.
THE test for Indiana to prove they are not hyped.
Well, I think they are hyped, but not a bad team. Not (yet, if ever) elite BIG10.
The team did not play anybody. Non-conference was almost as fluffy as you can have it.
And inside the conference they had only one team, which has a winning record, right now! That's not all their fault, since it was not really clear that teams, like Washington, Michigan and Maryland would take such a dive.
But the team has to be judged based on the season results and they did not play any of the leading teams of the BIG10 this season, until this gameday.
Now they face Ohio State, a team, which did invest heavily in the offseason to upgrade the team to the level the program thinks it should have and had not last season (when rival Michigan did wipe the floor with them).
To be fair, Ohio State did also win against many bad teams, but they did also play against Oregon (and lost by 1 point, on the road) and did play against Penn State (and won by 7 on the road), hence somebody.
Hence, the betting line is right now, Ohio State -13.5.
Here is, what I think what will happen.
Indiana will enter the Horseshoe, the stadium of Ohio State, and the team will be annihilated.
If Indiana beats the spread, I would be surprised, if they beat on top Ohio State, it would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.
I don't believe in that.
Buckeyes win.

#19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame
And the next game, involving a team, which did not play anybody.
I'm not a fan of Notre Dame this season, I think the team does not play worth a playoff spot, but they play and they play like a team worth a ranking.
Army on the other hand did play fluffy and double-fluffy and triple-fluffy, every week.
Last weekend was the 1st team with a winning record at that point with 5-4. And North Texas did earn those wins against fluffy and double-fluffy and triple-fluffy also.
Army won by 11 points against UNT.
Now this Army team has to play in South Bend against Notre Dame. The Irish are favored by 14.0 points. Only.
Remember, Army-UNT, 11 points margin.
Notre Dame did stand their ground against Texas A&M, they did lose to NIU (which does hurt them until today) and won against Louisville, GT and Virginia.
Any of that teams (except likely NIU) would win against UNT.
So, I expect a big win by Notre Dame at home to make a statement, which will send Army out of the rankings.
Fighting Irish win.

#13 SMU @ Virginia
I will not bet against SMU, but this game here is a perfect trap game for them.
SMU did play great so far, won all games, and does now, short before a trip to the championship game, which is for sure on the mind of the players already, to Virginia.
Virginia is complicated this season. They had bad games and good games. 2 weeks ago, they won against Pitt, on the road. Last week they lost to Notre Dame on the road, and 3 weeks ago against UNC at home.
But the team has potential and have their last home game.
SMU players MIGHT take the team too lightly.
Betting line is SMU -9.5, so quite clear in favor of the Mustangs.
As said, I will not bet against SMU, but I hope for a close game and I wouldn't be surprised, if an upset would happen.
Mustangs win.

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Nov 23
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is right now the best bet for a championship seat inside the CUSA. Sam Houston needs the win to not fall to 2 losses and the Gamecocks need the win to stay perfect and to avoid tie breaker scenarios.
Jacksonville State is favored by 6.0 points, which seems to be a bit less, but we will see.
Sam Houston will play for their live, but I think the home team is motivated to get to the championship game early.
Gamecocks win.

Western Kentucky @ Liberty
Liberty needs this win, as team with 2 losses inside the conference. WKU needs that win to NOT fall behind in this group of top 4 teams inside the CUSA.
WKU is favored by 1.0 points, which is nothing.
With the status of the teams, played at Liberty, I favor the home team.
Flames win.

#14 BYU @ #21 Arizona State
This is a test for BYU and the last chance for Arizona State.
BYU needs that win here to stay in the hunt for a championship game seat, the Sun Devils need the win to leapfrog BYU and to get into the driver seat for the championship game.
ASU is actually favored to win this in the desert, by 3.5 points.
BYU did look awful last week and now they play on the road against a tough team.
All can happen, BYU did win some tough games, but this team here, ASU, will likely be the highest sorted team they had to play. I'm leaning towards ASU, because they seem to get together after some tough losses and at home is always a factor.
Sun Devils win.

Marshall @ Old Dominion
None of the Sun Belt teams is really convincing.
The only thing I did learn this season was, every team might annoy the other.
And Old Dominion seems to annoy a bit more often.
Favored by 2.0 I think Marshall will have a hard time to win here and to secure the spot at the sun they have right now inside their division.
Monarchs win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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