2024-11-27 07:54

Oh man, this weekend did shuffle the current rankings significantly, because several top teams did fall to the underdog.

Many of those teams had the road to the Championship game inside the conference right ahead of them, but that usually had 'win and you are in' as mantra and the 'win' part did not happen.

I will explain that in the conference standings.

Coach Jim McElwain did announce he will retire at season end. He is right now the HC of Central Michigan and the team has this season so far a record of 4-7. Overall is McElwain at CMU 33-35 so far and with his gigs at Florida and Colorado State 77-63. He is 62. It could be he was on a hot seat anyway, since the team had losing seasons since 2022 and the coach did never deliver a championship for any of the teams he was responsible for. But that retirement path does at least let both parties separate with some dignity.

The traditional firing did happen at Tulsa, where Kevin Wilson received the pink slip after 1+ (almost 2) seasons. He had taken over a team in decline in 2023 and did win every season a game LESS than before and his predecessor, so no wonder the program decided that the direction was not the right one and let Wilson go. His record overall with Tulsa is 7-16, this season after 3-8 was the finishing line reached.

North Carolina did announce, they will look for a new HC after the season. The current HC, Mack Brown, will coach the last regular season game at least. Mack Brown did come to UNC after he felt from grace at Texas to have his 2nd term with UNC. In the 6 seasons here his results were OK, but the team did lack consistence and lost several games, which they should have won. The team went to a bowl in every season, but won only the one in the 1st season, 2019. Since then, all losses. I wished Brown would have left on his own rules, but as often in such positions, the situation was overestimated and a program like UNC can’t effort such decline for long. For me no surprise. Browns record of the 2nd term is 44-32, overall 113-78-1.

One positive news, East Carolina had fired their HC during the season and the interim HC Blake Harrell did guide the team since the takeover to a 4-0 record. Harrell was the DC for the Pirates since 2020 and has this HC job here as his 1st. He is mid-40, so a lot of room to grow and improve over time.

Let's go to the conference standings after week 13.

American Athletic Conference
The Conference Championship game is set, Army vs Tulane, only the stadium is not set yet. The final standings #1 team will host the Championship game at home.

Atlantic Coast Conference
SMU keeps on winning and stays undefeated and did clinch the spot in the ACC Championship game now.
The 1-loss-group is still Miami and Clemson.
If Miami wins the last game, they will reach the Championship game. If not, Clemson will.

BIG-12 Conference
The BIG-12 is a big mess.
BYU did lose again, this time against one of the contenders.
And Colorado did fall to the team, which did give BYU their 1st loss last week, so Colorado did also fall.
Now we have 4 teams with 2 losses inside the conference, Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU and Colorado.
Believe it or not, but Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia as 3-loss-teams are suddenly also in theory on the mix.
According to the BIG-12 the scenarios for the final weekend are in 3-figure territory and even the scenarios only involving the top 4 teams are many and not as easy as 'win and you are in' for all teams.
Because some tiebreakers do involve common opponents and that CAN include non-conference teams and it does depend on the results all opponents do have in that final week.
Most likely in case of winning is ASU vs ISU, but not 100%.
Worst case scenario is an 8-team-tie with all of them having 3 losses.
On top of that internal mess, the conference did also lose traction on the national rankings.
Because of losses of teams from other conferences, the overall rankings of teams from the BIG-12 winning last week did rise, but they are still south of a save spot for an at-large-bid and even a bye-week in the 1st round right now out of reach.

BIG10 Conference
The BIG10 had their settlement between Indiana and OSU.
Oregon had a bye week but clinched the title game spot anyway as lone unbeaten team.
Now 3 1-loss teams are right behind them, Ohio State, Indiana and Penn State.
Here the scenarios are quite easy.
If Ohio State wins their game, they are in.
If not, Indiana has the better chance to get in, if they win and Penn State loses, or Penn State wins and some tiebreaker factors involving the BIG10 opponents falls in Indianas favor.
Penn State need a OSU loss and either an Indiana loss or that tiebreaker fall in their favor.

Conference USA
Jacksonville State did clinch a spot in the title game already.
Liberty, Western Kentucky and Sam Houston have now all 2 losses and are right behind them.
The weekend does see games inside that 4-team club and the scenarios are clear.
If Liberty wins against Sam Houston, they are in.
If they lose, Sam Houston needs a win by Jacksonville State against WKU to get in.
WKU can get in if they beat Jacksonville State and Liberty loses to Sam Houston.

Mid-American Conference
The MAC is also quite open.
As 1-loss-teams are Miami (OH), Ohio and Bowling Green in the leading role.
With 2 losses behind them in only Buffalo.
The winner of Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green is in the Championship game with just 1 loss.
If Ohio wins, they would be also in.
The fun starts with Ohio losing, since then in theory 3 2-loss-teams are possible.
The tiebreaker builds on direct compare and common opponents and that will heavily depend on weather Miami(OH) (which did play Ohio and Buffalo) or Bowling Green (which did not play any of the teams) is in to be compared with.

Mountain West Conference
Boise State did seal a seat in the Championship game last week already.
Colorado State did suffer a defeat this weekend and are now on the same level as UNLV with 1 loss.
That means, if one team wins and the other loses, the winning team is in the championship game.
If both win or lose, the highest playoff ranking does decide and right now UNLV is better suited for that, or if no rankings are available, some computer metrics will decide.
That sounds like fun.

Southeastern Conference
The weekend did provide a big booboo for several teams but did easy up the championship seatings.
Texas is the only team left with 1 loss.
Behind them are Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Georgia is already done with their conference schedule and because of the results on the weekend, they did clinch a spot in the title game.
And the other spot is decided by the game between Texas and Texas A&M.
Tennessee has no chance to get to the title game.

Sun Belt Conference
The Sun Belt East is still led by Marshall with 1 loss.
Behind them is only Georgia Southern with 2 losses.
If Marshall wins against JMU, they are in. Same if they lose and Georgia Southern loses also.
If they lose and Georgia Southern wins, Georgia Southern wins the division by direct compare.
The West is still led by Louisiana with 1 loss.
Behind them are Arkansas State and South Alabama with 2 losses.
If Louisiana wins their last game, they are in.
If they lose and one of the 2-loss-teams win, it depends on the winning team, USA has the advantage against Louisiana, but Louisiana has the advantage to ASU.
If the Cajuns lose and both 2-loss-teams win, it depends on the common opponents.

That's it for the conferences.

Bowl eligible teams
13 more teams got their 6th win this weekend, which sums up now to 77 teams being already bowl eligible.

Week 6: Miami, Indiana
Week 7: Army, Pittsburgh, BYU, Iowa State, Oregon, Penn State and Texas
Week 8: Clemson, Duke, SMU, Memphis, Navy, Illinois, Kansas State, UNLV, Washington State, Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Louisiana and Notre Dame
Week 9: Tulane, Ohio State, Colorado, Sam Houston, Boise State, Alabama, Ole Miss and James Madison
Week 10: Louisville, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Iowa, Minnesota, Western Kentucky, UConn, Toledo, Colorado State, Vanderbilt and Georgia Southern
Week 11: Georgia Tech, TCU, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Ohio, San Jose State, South Carolina and Marshall
Week 12: East Carolina, North Carolina, Baylor, Washington, Rutgers, Miami (OH), Bowling Green, Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Texas State and Arkansas State
Week 13: South Florida, UTSA, Boston College, California, West Virginia, Michigan, USC, Nebraska, Fresno State, Arkansas, Florida, Oklahoma and South Alabama

One week left. Teams still in the pool are ...

ONE MORE TIME, PLEASE (need a win in the last game to get 6 wins)
North Texas, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Kansas, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Eastern Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon State, Auburn, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State and Louisiana Monroe

78 bowl spots are available. That means, very likely more teams will qualify than spots available, which did not happen that often in the past few seasons. But they did reduce 4 spots with the 12-seat-playoffs, so it is not a big surprise.

That brings us to the reviews of the last gameday.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 13

Sat. Nov 23
#5 Indiana @ #2 Ohio State
The 1st quarter was open, the 2nd did shift the game towards Ohio State and then did all gone downhill for Indiana to lose here by 23 points.
The Hoosiers did look OK at the start, but quite fast it became clear, that the Ohio State defense was too good to make significant yardage and the Ohio State offense was too often too flexible to stay on the field and score.
For Indiana at least this season it is not the time to make a big roar inside the BIG10.
If they are lucky, they will grab an at-large-spot in the playoffs, but that will depend on their last game and the results of all other teams and then on top, how the Championship games will come down.
The Buckeyes are 1 game away to get to the Championship game and they are for sure favored to do so.
#5 Indiana 15 @ #2 Ohio State 38 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 29-11

#19 Army @ #6 Notre Dame
Well, 28:7 at the half and at the end a 35-point-margin for the winning Irish did demonstrate, that Army is not in the same league as Notre Dame and likely also not in the same league as other ranked teams.
Their performance in the AAC Championship game will be relevant for an eventual playoff spot, but likely the AAC will not have a part in that this season.
The Irish did boost their ranking and will very likely be part of the at-large-group of teams in the playoffs and from there, everything is possible.
A sidenote, I did place the game in South Bend on the preview, but the game was played on neutral site in Yankee Stadium in New York as part of the shamrock series (a series of off-site games between Notre Dame and some other team, in which Notre Dame so far never lost).
#19 Army 14 @ #6 Notre Dame 49 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 30-11

#13 SMU @ Virginia
SMU needed that win and did dominate the whole game. Virginia was able to score in the 4th quarter, but that was in garbage time and SMU was already in the next game.
SMU did get a spot in the ACC Championship game; Virginia still needs 1 win for a bowl spot.
#13 SMU 33 @ Virginia 7 -> Jacks TOP GAMES Score: 31-11

And some other interesting games:

Sat. Nov 23
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State is the team to beat inside the CUSA and Sam Houston, even as good as the team is this season, did not stand a chance. In te 3rd quarter, for a short period of time, it did look like the game might shift towards the Bearkats (yes, with a K in Kats, not with a C), but the Gamecocks did catch that downfall and did spin it around in their favor and won 21:11 to secure a spot in the championship game.
Sam Houston needs a bit of help for the next game to get also in the Championship game, but it is as it is.
Jacks interesting games Score: 25-17

Western Kentucky @ Liberty
The other CUSA deciding game and it got more relevance, since Liberty needed the win badly to stay in the hunt and did deliver with a 38:21 win.
Now Liberty has it all in their hands next game, while WKU needs a bit of help to reach the championship game.
Jacks interesting games Score: 26-17

#14 BYU @ #21 Arizona State
Arizona had just 1 chance and it did use it.
BYU came into the game after the loss against Kansas and looked awful in the 1st half, trailing 3:21.
Then did BYU get a better start into the 2nd half and did cut the lead slowly to 5 points in the 4th quarter.
ASU was stopped and BYU got the chance to finally changing the lead.
But the Cougars were intercepted in the ASU half.
The Sun Devils did try to get a 1st down or to eat down the clock with roughly 1 minute left to play, but on 4th down the clock management of ASU was bad that BYU did get the ball back with 1 tick left on the clock.
Unfortune, it did look like ASU had won the game and the fans did not only storm the field, they were already taking down the goal posts!
After everything was fixed and the fans were off the field, BYU did try a Hail Mary, but did throw shorter the endzone, and even it was caught, it was not enough to win.
ASU win 28:23 and BYU lost the 2nd game in a row.
The BIG-12 is now a big mess for the last gameday and in worst case an major tiebreaker with 8 teams can happen.
Jacks interesting games Score: 27-17

Marshall @ Old Dominion
The only wrong pick this weekend for me here.
Marshall did first looked dominating, then they did let Old Dominion getting close up to 1 point difference and later even tying the game, while at the end having the last say and win 42:35.
For Marshall an important win towards the division title, while Old Dominion did fail on staying in the competition and lost the hope for a bowl spot on the last gameday.
Jacks interesting games Score: 27-18

And some more funny result of week 13:

- Central Michigan won against Western Michigan, 16:14. That gives WMU the 3rd loss in a row. The team can get bowl eligibility on last gameday and can still hold on the rivalry trophy "Michigan MAC Trophy" with a win against EMU in the upcoming weekend, since then all teams had a win against the other and in that case the winner of the previous year would keep the trophy.
- Oklahoma did somehow win against Alabama, 24:3. The Tides offense was miserable. Oklahoma did get a bowl spot and the Tide went out of competition for the SEC and likely also for the playoffs.
- One of the biggest upsets was Floridas win against Ole Miss, 24:17. The offense of Ole Miss did not come through and Florida did get bowl eligible and might end the season on a high note next week. I would not have thought that way after their bad start in September. Ole Miss lost the status as competitor and likely also a spot in the playoffs.
- Auburn needed 4! OT, but did win against Texas A&M, 43:41. A dropped pass to the endzone by A&M did seal that upset. For A&M the road to the SEC Championship game is still open, they need to win next week against Texas.
- Kansas did take down the next ranked team in 2 weeks by beating Colorado, 37:21. They still need 1 win to get to a bowl, while Colorado needs to win to eventually get to the Championship game. But the BIG-12 will be very complicated next weekend, depended on the results.
- Boston College did win against North Carolina, 41:21. The UNC HC did announce he plans to return after that quite bad season, but shortly after that came the info, that the program wants a change on the HC position and that Mack Brown is granted the last season game against NC State, but whether he will also coach the bowl is open.
- Appalachian State did beat James Madison, 34:20. Big win for App State, while JMU did fall out of the competition for the division crown by that loss.
- Oregon State did win against Washington State, 41:38. That gives, as ridiculous as it sounds, the PAC-12-Championship to the Beavers with that one win.
- USC won the Battle for LA against UCLA, 19:13 and became bowl eligible by that.
- And as last game did Fresno State win against Colorado State, 28:22. With that loss did CSU drop in the standings inside the MWC and needs now a bit of help to reach the MWC championship game.

Quite some shuffling on the rankings from the committee, thanks to the losses by several contenders.

The last gameday will strengthen the rankings further after next gameday, but really relevant is only the final ranking AFTER the Conference Championship games and those will have a huge impact on those positions, since usually top quite high ranked teams will clash in those games and the winner will get a plus and the loser will get a minus on the impression the team made over the season.

No changes at the top of the BIG10, with #1 Oregon, #2 Ohio State and #4 Penn State. Thanks to the loss against Ohio State did Indiana drop to #10, which is a good news for them. Illinois did climb to #23, but won't have an impact on the playoffs.

The SEC teams did get again a new look with Ole Miss and Alabama losing. Still on top is #3 Texas, then back as 2nd best team is #7 Georgia. #8 now Tennessee, #13 Alabama, #14 Ole Miss and #15 South Carolina. At #20 now Texas A&M and #21 Missouri.
A&M has still double chance to get into the playoffs, thanks to the LONESTAR SHOWDOWN this weekend. The winner will play Georgia for the crown and will get a boost in the ranks.

With #5 is Notre Dame the only team left ranked out of the group of teams, which can only get an at-large-spot.

The ACC is now with the highest ranked team at #6 with Miami, followed by #9 SMU and #12 Clemson.
The PALMETTO BOWL inside South Carolina will eventually lift Clemson into an at-large-spot or drop them out for sure.

The Mountain West stayed on a bye-week slot with #11 Boise State. Best bet on the championship opponent is #22 UNLV.

And the BIG-12 did shoot themselves further in the foot and has now as highest ranked team #16 Arizona State, followed by #18 Iowa State, #19 BYU, #24 Kansas State (back in the ranks) and #25 Colorado.
With the last gameday the ranks won't rise much, if those teams would win, since most of the opponents are losing teams.

And the last team ranked is from the American Athletics, #17 Tulane.
Army got the kick out of the ranks after the beating they got from Notre Dame.
That does give Tulane, if they win the AAC, not a good boost for the final rankings, so very likely the AAC will not play in the playoffs.

I skip the seating stuff until the final rankings, since it makes no sense.

I will keep you updated.

Last gameday for all teams not named Army or Navy for the regular season. It is also the traditional rivalry week with a high number of rivalry games.

The BLOCK OF GRANITE TOP GAMES FOR WEEK 14

Fri. Nov 29
Mississippi State @ #14 Ole Miss
The so-called EGG BOWL has this season some impact on the SEC and the playoff chances of Ole Miss.
In 120 meetings so far did Ole Miss 19 wins more than Mississippi State and won last season.
The winner gets the golden egg, which was intended to be a football, but since the ball in the 1920s, when the trophy was created, did look more like an egg, the nickname for the trophy did stick and so the egg bowl did get its name.
Played in Oxford, Ole Miss is clearly favored by 26.0 points.
A loss by the Rebels would end any dream of a playoff participation.
Of course that would be a big thing for MSU, but obviously they will have to play tough to accomplish that.
Rebels win.

Sat. Nov 30
#16 Arizona State @ Arizona
The so-called DUEL IN THE DESERT in which the winner gets the TERRITORIAL CUP.
Arizona leads by 8 wins in 97 meetings, including 2 wins in the past 2 years.
The nickname is the most common one, several other names were given, but most did not stick.
For Arizona State a seat at the championship game is at stake here, playing on the road.
They are favored by 8.5 points.
Arizona did not look good this season, with the new HC and all the changes. For me, ASU is favored way more than the betting line.
Sun Devils win.

Michigan @ #2 Ohio State
Depended on who you ask regarding the TOP 3 rivalry games in college football you get usually IRON BOWL, ARMY-NAVY and THE GAME, in different sorting.
THE GAME, the match between Ohio State and Michigan, is very often the top game or 2nd to the top, likely dependent whether the ask person is from the north or south.
Started shortly after Mankind did start playing football (1st match 1897) the so far 119 matches did give Michigan a lead of win by 10 games, including a streak of 3 wins in the last 3 years.
But this season the signs do point towards an end of that streak.
The game is at the horseshoe, Michigan is in a transition year with a new HC and Ohio State has invested a lot of money to get back at the top.
Not often is Ohio State favored in this game with 21.0 points.
If Michigan loses, the consequences are slim, except the loss against a rival. If Ohio State loses, the might lose the spot in the BIG10 Championship game and might even drop out of the playoff spots.
This will be a heated game, that's why it is so popular, but likely this will also be this season a boring one.
Ohio State knows what's at stake and they will do whatever needed to end the streak and clinch the Championship game spot.
Buckeyes win.

#3 Texas @ #20 Texas A&M
THE LONE STAR SHOWDOWN is on again.
Last played in 2011 (Texas won) and then paused, thanks to the move of Texas A&M to the SEC.
Both sides were so annoyed by that move, that the series was paused. It did feel like Texas was pissed, because A&M dared to leave the BIG-12 and A&M did feel they advanced to the big boys and Texas was below their level of attention.
Regardless, this season, after Texas did also join the SEC, the matchup did come up again and nobody would have expected, that the winner of this game would get a seat in the SEC Championship game.
Texas has a loss less than A&M inside the conference, and a win will grant them the spot by default. But if A&M wins, the tiebreaker between Texas, A&M, Georgia and eventually Tennessee will grant A&M a top 2 spot and by that a seat in the championship game.
High stakes in this heated rivalry.
The 12-man, the fan base of A&M, will be in the stadium and will make this environment as hostile as possible for the Longhorns.
Still the Longhorns are favored by 5.5 points to win here.
Texas leads the series of so far 118 matches by 39 wins.
When you look at the results, it's clear that Texas is in it's prime, while A&M did lose some steam under the 1st-year-HC.
The only unknown element is the rivalry itself.
In such games, a lot can happen, and many times did the favorites, even heavy favorites, get bested by the rival, because those players did so much effort in the game, that the matchup became different than anything a paper can show you.
In such a preview such element can't be evaluated, so I have to rely on the facts and those do point towards a Texas win.
Longhorns win.

And some other interesting games:

Fri. Nov 29
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
A quite popular game, the winner gets PAUL BUNYAN'S AXE, a hint for a fable figure roaming the woods of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
133 meetings so far, Wisconsin leads by 1 win and that came last season.
This season the teams are quite even regarding record and will face each other in Madison.
Wisconsin is favored by 2.0 points.
I personally think Minnesota did play a better season than Wisconsin so far, but of course will this rivalry game be different than the usual games.
I think it will be a typical BIG10-game, few points, hard defense, close.
Coin toss ...
Golden Gophers win.

Georgia Tech @ #7 Georgia
The so call CLEAN, OLD-FASHIONED HATE named rivalry is played since 1893 and in 117 games did the Bulldogs get 30 more wins than GT, including a 6-game winning streak at the moment.
The name is based on in-state rivalry based on initial team colors (UGA has gold also early and did drop it, because a coach felt it was too close to yellow and that "symbolized cowardice") and some mocking during 1st world war.
Georgia is clearly favored at home. 19.5 points.
A loss would hurt them heavily, if they lose the SEC championship game on top, it might send them even out of the playoff spots.
But chances are big, they win, at home, by a mile.
Bulldogs win.

Sat. Nov 30
#5 Notre Dame @ USC
The so call BATTLE FOR THE JEWELED SHILLELAGH is played since 1926 and in 94 meetings did the Irish win 12 more games than the Trojans, including last season’s win.
The winner gets a club, which is filled with cloverleafs (Irish win) and Trojan-helmets (USC win) and which gets and addition based on the current season winner. The icon added has also a tiny jewel in it, for Irish emerald, for Trojans ruby.
This season it's played in LA and that could be a do-or-die-game for the Irish. A loss against a mediocre team from LA this season could send them directly out of the playoff ranks.
The Irish are favored by 7.5 points.
With the travel and played at USC, it will be interesting to see, whether the teams can play tough and concentrated.
I lean towards the Irish, but I would not be surprised, if USC finds some ways to end the season with a win.
Fighting Irish win.

Florida @ Florida State
The SUNSHINE SHOWDOWN does offer not much this season.
There were times, when this game did decide a National Championship and the newspapers did print WAR on the frontpage, but this season it's more a feeling of 'let's get over this'.
Florida had a bad start of the season, but I admit, the team did grow and is now bowl eligible AND are 14.5 points favorite to win this game here.
They are 9 wins in the series ahead in 67 games but have a 2 game losing streak.
Florida State has one of the worst seasons they ever had (2-9) and will get a major overhaul in the offseason.
Not sure how motivated the team will be.
I guess most just want the season to be over, so not sure they will play with their heart.
The Gators DO play with their heart, and I think they WANT to end the winning streak of the rival, on the road.
Gators win.

#15 South Carolina @ #12 Clemson
A game, which usually is not that relevant outside of South Carolina, this season it gets a special twist.
The PALMETTO BOWL is played since 1896 and in 120 did Clemson win 30 games more than South Carolina, including last year’s win.
A long time was South Carolina not on the same level as Clemson, but this season both seemed to be quite close, both ranked and the winner will likely get a boost in the ranks, while the loser will get a big drop, maybe even fall out of the ranks.
That might become important for the at-large-spots of the playoffs.
Beside that is the inter-conference game just a rivalry game with the usual importance.
Clemson is favored at home by 2.5 points, which is not much.
The truth is, both teams have some flaws, but did play tough football.
Clemson had that surprising loss against Louisville at home a few weeks ago, while South Carolina was lawless in the past 5 games.
Given the level of competition the Gamecocks had to play, I'm leaning towards a Gamecocks win here.
Clemson did not play well against Georgia at season opener, but that might just have been a booboo at season start.
I hope for a close game.
Gamecocks win.

Auburn @ #13 Alabama
The IRON BOWL, one of the most beloved rivalry games, often the TOP game, most of the time inside the TOP 2.
Alabama leads the series by 13 wins in 88 games, including a 4 game winning streak.
This season the Tide is in a transition phase with a new HC and did drop a game last gameday surprisingly.
Auburn is in a rebuilding phase with a HC in the 2nd season and the team shows promising progress.
Alabama is bowl eligible and can hope for an at-large-playoff spot, even with 3 losses, if they win here.
Auburn needs a win to get the 6 wins for a bowl spot and can only hope to win against the hated rival.
Alabama is favored at home by 11.5 points, and I don't see why I should pick Auburn here, except I do foresee some sort of extra energy by the Tigers.
But as written, such efforts are hard to predict and I stay with the facts, which are all on the side of Alabama.
Crimson Tide win.

'Til next time
Jack6 on BLOCK OF GRANITE

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